Tag Archives: NASDAQ

Market Falling on Poor Economic Data, but Low Volume

The indices are all down around 1.5% across the board. With banks cutting outlooks and forecasts left and right, a lot of traders are jumping at the opportunity to sell. But I would like to note amidst all this downward pressure, that there is not a lot of volume momentum behind this short leg down. Had there been a spike above average volume in today’s trading session, that would have been a huge sell signal but until that is confirmed, the market looks to be moving sideways with a little optimism. The VIX jumped 11%, tippy toeing at 17.4. Look for tomorrow’s trading session to be a strong indicator of direction.

Overnight Trading - The Battle Begins

HedgeFundLIVE.com — Trading through the night. A new one for me. Like sky diving (which I have never done), or bungee jumping (another I have never done). Tonight felt like the night. Alone in my thoughts. No voices to distract me. Quiet. Pure trading. Instinct. It is 12:36am. I am here. Yet I am not. It is surreal. Lifted at 1308.75, I will bid ¼. What keeps the market up after negative GS news? More importantly, how many other lunatics like me are still trading right now? Oil is flat. I have offered some at 1309. A pack of smokes and tea. A traders dream. Taken at 1309. I will bid 1308.5. Trades at 1309.25. Can they go to new highs? I am intrigued. The trading floor is dark. The light from my MAC shines on me as I listen to some strange alternative music on my iTunes. Dow futures are up 8. The dollar is dropping. Asian markets are flat. I wonder how long I can stay up and stare at the screens. It is both a high like a crack addict, and a depressing sight, like a tortured soul on one last stand. Lifted at 1309. Nearing the highs. Fear sets in. The market is 50 cents wide. I don’t remember the last time I saw that in the futures. Perhaps if I was up at 1 am last night I might have had the same opportunity. Offered at 1309. Senator Levin said Deutsche bank is in trouble! What will the Dax do? The Russell futures just went positive. More fear. They are 09 1/4bid. I am at ½. Why? What a bad close, only to see them rally overnight. NASDAQs are flat. Covered 36 at 1308, average short on 36 1308.42. Bathroom break. I check in on our hits to our site, 100 people in the first half hour of the day. Where are they? Why us?


“Battle not with monsters lest you become one” - Nietzsche


I have become one. It is important to understand the beast you battle. What better way then to become one? It is 1am. I wonder where Goldman Sachs will open. Will executives be accused of perjury? I am offered at 1309.5 and it feels like I will be taken. My nerves are on edge. I am still boggled at how many of us stare at the screens all night. It is a dark world. It reminds me of when Spartacus was relegated to do battle in the bowls of hell. Live or die. No rules. No tears. Just life. Or death. They begin to take the offers at 1309.5, yet a strange calm comes over me. I am taken at 1309.5. I will bid 1309. Futures are at the high of the overnight session. I can feel the wind rush by me as I fall from the plane I dove from. A new high is made at 1310. This was a big level of resistance during the day session. I am tired but I do not desire sleep. I desire the thrill of the battle. There is one contract bid for at 1309.75, but no one will hit it.


“To conquer oneself is a greater victory than to conquer thousands in battle” - Buddha


I have a long way to go.

I love the silence of the trading floor at 1:10 am.

They threaten the highs again. They are picking away at 1310. I definitely shorted prematurely, but this battle has just begun. The battle wages at 1009 ¾. Had the Goldman news come out at 3:45 today, this would be a different night. Timing is everything. I am sure my partners think I have lost my mind. But they are wrong. I am in my element. Against the odds, in a battle I have never lived though.

30 seconds between trades feels like an eternity. It is a pause in the middle of a firefight. Someone please fire a shot.


“Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a harder battle” - Plato


Plato is correct. Mine is but a tiny battle in the entire scheme of other battles that are fought every day. But it is my battle, and I cherish it. It seems like the buyers are using up a great deal of artillery. It feels like the sellers are luring them in. Russell futures make a new high as the dollar continues to trade down. Oil is quiet. New high in the Russell. New high at 1310.25. New high in Gold futures. Another few ticks and I will accept defeat for now, and cover a batch. New high in Dow futures. Sold 5 at 1310.25, will bid back 1309.75. It’s been quite a while since I saw a downtick. New high in silver futures. It is 1:30, I am tired, but want to battle on. My body aches, no it is more that tingly feeling, when you have crossed beyond your normal comfort zone and are beyond emotions. No down tick, the enemy pushes forward. New highs in silver.  I pity my opponents as I pity myself. It feels like algorithms are pushing it higher, but when will they stop?  NASDAQ futures hit a new high. I have no choice but to fight this battle, I have too much money on the line. All war is fought over ideological issues or financial. The dollar makes new lows breaking 75 support levels. Gold makes new highs. I sold 2 more S&P at 1310.5. Bidding 1310. Not a single pullback. They are relentless in their march forward up over 5 handles from the lows. I have used up my last match. From here on in, it is the stove. Silver hits new highs. It is 1 45am.  Just hit at 1310. My first kill. 50cents on 2 contacts. Luck? Or a change of the tide? New highs gold. Dollar new lows. Fatigue is setting in. It feels like the algos have backed away.



“It is impossible to win the race unless you venture to run, impossible to win the victory unless you dare to do battle” - Richard DeVos


I dare.

Silver and gold make new highs. Nasdaq pulls in a bit more and turns negative. I am hit at 1309.5. Another kill for .75 cents on 5 contracts. I am reinvigorated. Nasdaq down a point. It has become a war of attrition. Oil is up 34cents at 107.45


I feel stronger shorting at 1310.5. Minutes go by without a trade. It feels like an eternity. Staring. Waiting. Another new low on the dollar. Oil at new highs. I definitely feel nauseous. It is like running a marathon. 1 minute and 30 seconds since last trade.


Offering 2 at 13.10.25. I am lifted. I will bid back a point. New highs on gold. It is 2am. Nadsdaq feels heavy, if one can even use that term at 2am. The Nikkei is closing marginally up. Soon Europe will open and all will become clear. Downticks in silver and gold. And just like that, silver makes a new high. I am starting to lose my mind. I think I need to rest. Russells go negative. Another kill I am hit at 1309.25 on 2.


It is 2 15am. I have set my alarm for 1 hour. It is time to rest.


2:30, I cannot fall asleep. It is like being alone in a foxhole, there is nobody to take watch while I get shuteye.

Silver makes new highs. And the dollar makes new lows by a penny. I feel nauseous.

I have to bid for some at 1309 as it is a trend line. If we break it, I will back away until 1308. My partners will arrive in the office at 6 am.


“Now if you are going to win any battle, you have to do one thing. You have to make the mind run the body. Never let the body tell the mind what to do. The body will always give up. It is always tired – morning, noon, and night. But the mind is never tired.” - General George S Patton


I am hit at 1309 on the trend line. I will reoffer them at 1310. The dollar marginally upticks as the S&P trades at 1308.75. They seem to tick down as we get closer to civilization awakening. They are through the trend line. They trade at 1308,25. My blood begins to heat up again. They’re now trading at 1308. I have a 1307.75 bid against sales at 1308.8. NASDAQ pulls in 1.75 handles. I can feel the kill upon me. Hit, my first real kill of the night!


It is 3 am. And the dollar is strengthening. Oil has made a complete turn around and is now down 11 cents. It is going lower.  Bidding 1306 for 1. The desk refers to that as a soldier. They are trading actively at 1306.75. The battle is heating up again. It is 3:15. The nausea has become delirium. If they break 1305, they should see 1300. Or perhaps the delirium is really setting in. They bounced off the Bollinger band with a long wick, although my eyes are crusted over, so I could be making that up. The size has increased as Europe awakens. I think I just ashed in my tea. I am reading headlines about further damage to Japan’s nuclear reactors, and Goldman being brought to the DOJ.  I figure I will take a shower at 4am. The trading floor has its own private spa. 1306.5 is vulnerable.


“I firmly believe that any man’s finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is the moment when he has worked his heart out for a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle – vitorious” - Vince Lombardi.


I am hit at 1306. Soldier, well spent! Hit at 105.75. They are a half point to breaking new lows in the overnight. it is 3:40am. Size bid for at 1305.5. Here is where the enemy makes its stand. I am bidding 1305 for 5. Bathroom break. False alarm.


It looks like it may take some time for them to break this level. The last time I saw this level was 8 pm yesterday. I will offer my 2 soldiers back out at 1307. Taken at 1307. Next point of resistance looks like 1308, I will offer 5 and bid back at 1306 for my 2 soldiers. Japan’s now saying it will take 3 months to figure out how to solve their nuclear reactor problems. I feel stoned. But without the smell. It is 3:48am . Hit at 1306 on 2.  Reoffering 2 at 1307.25, bidding for 3 at lows of overnight. Russells are feeling weaker. I am feeling weaker. I am starting to hear things on the trading floor, noises from other rooms. It’s a bit unnerving. Headlines crossing about Obama raising taxes. This all cant bode well for the market. 5 minutes to shower. Ticking at 1307. Stocks are starting to populate in my Redi. They are stuck in a range. It is shower time. 4am.


Nothing has changed in 10minutes. Hit at 5 ¾ on 1. Offering at 6 ¾. They are holding that 1305.5 level firmly. That was the second attempt at breaking it. I will not be bidding for it on the third attempt. If I don’t get lifted at 6 ¾ then we are putting in lower high pattern. Taken at 6 ¾. Biddig 1305.5 for 5. Bidding 1306 for 2.  Hit at 06, offering up .75. They are flirting with the lows and I am starting to flirt with imaginary people on the desk. It is 4:30 am. I am starting to talk to myself.  Lifted at 6 ¾. I will bid 6 again for 4. Lifted at 7 ¼. Bidding 6.5 for 2. Bought 1. Things are heating up, I have a terrible headache.


It is 5am , I have sold 68 contracts at 1308.52 and bought 68 at 1306.9 I am no longer tired, I look forward to the day ahead. I expect them to make a new low and break 1305.



Flat Market Leading to Angst

HedgeFundLive.com —  For the past two weeks in a row, the broad indexes have ended trading at the end of the week at a break even, leaving traders with no real market direction. With news on Friday midnight that the government has dodged a shutdown, it will be interesting to see the market reaction on Monday. Investors, both concerned and unconcerned about the government shutdown, sought to use the 1995 Clinton-era shutdown as a precedent. The unconcerned argued that the market did not react too drastically in the past and should be no different now. I would like to contend however that we were financially stable in 1995 relative to today. With the S&P 500 lingering around the 500 levels, the market barely winced at the 3-week shutdown a decade and a half ago. In addition, we have since than initiated many government programs and as a nation have become over “leveraged” as evidence of our debt.

The market remains very mixed. On a technical level, I believe the market index may see a short-term correction in the ensuing weeks before continuing higher. Support levels suggest the Dow Jones will find recovery at the 12250 level and the large 12000 level. MACD and stochastics show the index is weighted heavily and is currently in overbought territory. Inference from the NASDAQ is noticeably different – mainly caused by the surge of good earnings reports coming from tech stocks. This gives me a small reason to believe the Dow Jones and S&P 500 will follow the NASDAQ up and possibly breakout to higher highs in the next month. I conclude that I am slightly bullish to market neutral.

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Facebook Depression = Bad for your kid, good for Facebook

If your kid looks like this he may be Facebook Depressed

HedgeFundLIVE.com — Initially recommended in June 2009, but updated earlier this month, the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), has for some time now, recommended that parents familiarize themselves with the various social media outlets available to their children.  The AAP encourages parents to monitor their kids’ internet usage as well as their instant messaging and texting.  In a clinical report released today, however, the AAP is bringing pediatricians into the conversation.  During school and camp check-ups, doctors should do some digging about their young patients’ social media habits.  “The key, it seems, is to glean information without coming across as heavy-handed. So a doctor might casually ask, Do you have a cell phone? A Facebook account? How many friends — virtual ones, not in-the-flesh pals — do you have?”  The reason for the recommendation is that more and more kids are spending the majority of their “social time” on the internet.  Sexting and cyberbullying are some obvious concerns for parents, but a phenomenon known as “Facebook Depression” may not have crossed their minds.  Ever-increasing time spent in front of the computer means less time spent with peers.  Some children, as a result, can experience social isolation or low self-esteem, especially when in the company of other kids.  Social standing is no longer measured solely by in-school popularity, but also by number of Facebook friends and postings on one’s Facebook wall.  Pediatricians, therefore, should try to develop a robust diagnostic framework for their patients, one that includes all aspects of social interaction.

For parents, this is yet another wake-up call; an indication that modern day childhood, and particularly adolescence, is uncharted territory.  Your kids likely know more about computers and the internet than you do, but you’ll have to keep a leash on them somehow.  For investors, on the other hand, all signs point to a bullish Facebok IPO.  Then again, it may just be a matter of time until Big Brother steps in and bans Facebook accounts for users under X years of age.


NYSE and NASDAQ standoff

HedgeFundLive.com -    It seems that few weeks back NYSE Euronext announced their proposed merger with Deutsche Boerse.  However the merger faces stiff regulatory anti-trust review by the EU. The deal is quite big even in EU, as the merger would combine NYSE Euronext’s Liffe and Eurex, the exchange jointly owned by Deutsche Boerse and Swiss Stock Exchange. This deal would put 90% of region’s exchange-traded derivatives market in on hand.
On the other hand, the biggest NYSE competitor, NASDAQ  seems to be mulling a counter offer to the deal. Seems like NASDAQ’s chief doesn’t like to be left behind when it comes to NYSE. Financially, NASDAQ bidding for the merged entity doesn’t make much sense since the new entity that NASDAQ shareholders would have to pay $10 billion in price. NASDAQ’s best year has only produced $395 million in profits so far, so it might need a partner.
NASDAQ’s chief Mr. Greifeld has been discussing with NASDAQ directors on the possibilities for the bid. Apparently Mr. Greifeld uses his rivalry with NYSE chief as a motivation. One of his former colleagues commented that “He gets up in the morning every day to beat the NYSE”. Will NYSE-Deutsche merger go through as planned making it much larger than NASDAQ? Will NASDAQ end up buying the NYSE-Deutsche? We’ll have to wait and see what’s in fate for NYSE, a 200+ year old stock exchange.


Flash memory

40 percent of flash memory comes out of Japan. Look for delays in shipments to drive Flash prices much higher. Maybe a semi squeeze coming. Keep an eyes out for the SMH and look for the QQQQ to outperform the SPY near term.

Wednesday Market Expectations - It Has Begun

The Time Has Come - Hedge Fund Live

HedgeFundLive.com -

I am reposting my blog from yesterday as i believe “It has begun” , China is slowing down, Spain is downgraded and i believe we may see a print above 400,ooo on the jobless claims. Not good. strap in for another crazy day.

I have the biggest overnight short position I have had in nearly a month. I am very bearish. Odd, as I really was a perma bull. But I have always been the guy that saw things ahead of time. I have seen what is coming over the next couple of weeks for the last couple of months. We are on the verge. Take your money off the table; the risk reward is significantly in the hands of the bears.

The NASDAQ was not strong on Tuesday. It was weak. Did you not see the selling into every rally? Did you not see AAPL hit a wall? Did you not see NFLX struggle and AMZN sell into every rally?

Oil will rally overnight. It should. The Middle East is a mess. How naive can we be to believe that the Libyan civil war will be resolved in the near term? Are you deaf? Did you not hear that Saudi Arabia is outlawing peaceful protests? The day of rage is upon us. Oil will be trading at 110 next week.

The market is stuck in a fever pitch, soon to be broken by the realities that are staring us in the face. My aunt Bernice wants to know if I think Apple is cheap. Should she buy NFLX? Is JDSU going back to $300 a share? We have reached that insane moment that only occurs when the market nearly doubles inside of two years. We are in a frenzy. When you wake up from a euphoric dream, and reality sets in, depression is soon to follow. As the saying goes, “Plan A never works, Plan B almost never works. No one ever has a Plan C.” We are there and there is no plan C.

Anarchy is upon us. Greed and a blind eye have brought us here. We need to correct, to find ourselves back on the path. The New York Times front-page lead article “Rising Oil Prices Pose New Threat To U.S. Economy”-ignored. Page A14 “Prime Minister Urges Iraqis to Call Off Nationwide Protests”. Yes, we are in danger of reversing  years of effort as we begin preparations to pull out of Iraq in December. Newtown, CT, my home away from home is struggling with their local budget. They are lucky to be struggling, high profile municipalities are not struggling, they are doomed.

Win, lose, or draw, I have bet a significant amount on the outcome of Wednesday’s market. This is referred to as living on the edge. It is where I belong. It is where I want to be. One decision, to be able to judge yourself in a moment, comprehend self worth, is like no other high. It is reality. It is destiny. I no longer have the patience to review the reasons why I am bearish. I would rather discuss the psychology that allows one to make a bet. Not just a small bet. But a bet that can change the game. I understand the risk. The firm is up $52,000 on the month. Tomorrow we are either down $50,000 or up $200,000. That is the real life of a “Risk Taker”. It is not your normal life. It is abnormal. But it is a high like no other. It is a razor blade edge I walk. A reward far beyond every day expectations. The time for long winded blogs explaining my position are at an end. It is time to put up or shut up, and so I have. No more discussions about domestic issues. No more pontificating on geopolitical implications. I will write no more blogs till I have either won the battle or been forced to retreat. It has begun.

Tune In for my live broadcast at HedgeFundLive.com Mon - Fri 8am - 5pm, lets see how it all ends.

Making the morning trade- two key facts u need to know

take the money and run


This morning was ur typical rudimentary trade that all traders can learn from. we had a clear divergence in the nasdaq futures vs the spus.  right off the open the spus showed clear strength while the nasdaq’s showed their weakness as the leaders in the group ala goog aapl ffiv and amzn were breaking lower.  i shorted the nasdaqs for a quick trade and made 5 handles short.  at around 10am thw spus started to follow the weakness in the nasdaqs and the whole market gave in . one can look at this trading pattern and gather a couple important facts.

1- nasdaq was the leader of this mkt and eventually gave up 30 handles from highs based on the weakness in the nasdaq leaders.

2- the spus , after showing some strength in the morning could not sustain its leadership

this is a great trading pattern that all beginner traders can look for when trading the first hour of the mkts.  _  overiding weakness in the names that have led this mkt rally  ( aapl, goog, amzn ,ffiv, intc and nflx)  led this nice move to the downside.




SEC closing in the pvt stock trading probe

Stocks of Facebook aren’t available to public yet but it hasn’t stopped from the rich getting their share of it from exchanges such as SecondMarket and SharePost. Security Exchange Commission is taking a closer look at “pre-IPO” trading within these exchanges and three investment funds that specialize in buying up shares. These markets are less regulated by the SEC compared to the NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX.


My Trading Plan 1-24-11

Good Monday morning to you from a brutally cold Englewood, NJ. Not much fun waking up in 4 degree weather but it is what it is. My plan today is to employ a scalp strategy to my trading. I do not have a great thesis on which direction I believe the averages will trade in, so when I scalp I am making smaller proftis with less risk and more trading throughout the day.

I will have a live student coming in today so that will take a bit of my focus away from the trading from 11-2 but other than that there are no distractions and I anticipate having an excellent day trading. The nasdaq took a real pounding on Friday but we saw it more in stocks than in the index so I am interested to see how that resolves itself and DOW names continue to show relative strength.

Happy Trading!