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Tag Archives: Asian markets

A strong market for prepaid Internet service

An emerging industry worth looking into: People in countries with developing economies and emerging markets rely heavily on prepaid internet service to access the World Wide Web. Internet cafes arising faster than one can blink an eye. In Indonesia, only 1% of the population actually pays for home internet service (compare this to the U.S.), and a predominantly youthful population relies on pay-as-you-go internet in order to browse the web, go on Facebook, etc. This appears to be an industry with much growth potential, as there are still many areas in the world without access to Internet.


Not Much Out Today So Expecting a Quiet Monday Session

Morning Notes

- Asian markets had a strong day- in catch up reaction to Mubarak stepping down
- Speculation that China CPI, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow, may come in below expectation of +5.3%
- Japan GDP showed a contraction, -1.1%, which is still better than expectations- hence, the Nikkei closed up 1%
- Japan’s GDP release moves China up to be the second largest economy in the world
- Chinese markets were up nicely with the Shanghai Comp closing up 2.5% and the Hang Seng closing up 1.3%
- European bourses have backed off their early highs and they are currently up marginally
- Quiet on news front in Europe and in the U.S. as well
- S&P futures are down 1.25 handles from FV
- Crude continues its slide this morning
- Treasuries are flat
- Dollar is showing strength again today
- There are no major economic data releases scheduled for today; hence, expecting a quiet Monday session

S&P Futures Feeling Heavy Ahead of the Open

Morning Notes

- Main headline in the o/n is that Egyptian Pres. Mubarak announced he will not run for another term this September
- This announcement, however, did not ease protests
- Asian markets were strong with the Nkkei closing up 1.8% as did the Hang Seng
- Strength in Japan attributed to a mix of solid earnings both as well as catch up yday’s strength in the U.S. mkts
- Note that the Shanghai Comp was closed for the Lunar New Year
- UK Construction PMI came in showing an expansion
- European markets are generally flat
- S&P downgraded Ireland and issued negative rating actions on Irish Banks
- Dollar not resuming its slide from yesterday
- ADP Employment Chg: 187K vs. 145K; prior revised down to 247K (which was the highest since 2006)
- CME delays opening of floor trading until 11a
- S&P futures feeling heavy ahead of the open, but down just 3.5 handles from FV
- Pivots on the Spooz are wide following yday’s action; they are not trading on any pivot signal, between S3 and R3 pivots

Spooz/Naz Divergence Thanks to AAPL

Morning Notes

- Asian markets closed flattish, although Shanghai was down 3% yesterday while the U.S. equity market was closed
- China’s President Jintao made comments over the weekend around the yuan being a major player in the FX mkts in the upcoming yrs
- Strength seen in Europe
- 12 and 18 month T Bill auctions in Spain was generally viewed as successful

Steve Jobs Medical Leave

- UK CPI came in higher than expected
- German ZEW, which measures investor confidence, came in significantly higher than expected
- Commodities are up while dollar is facing weakness this morning- dollar recovered a bit from its recent slide yesterday; dollar weakness largely due to bounce in the euro
- S&P futures down just 2 handles from FV, trading along the R3 pivot level
- Nasdaq futures down about 19 handles due to AAPL, which is down on news that Steve Jobs will take a medical leave of absence
- January Empire Manufacturing: 11.92 vs. 12.50; prior revised down to 9.89 from 10.57
- Net Long Term TIC Flows: $85B vs. $40B; prior revised up to $28.9B from $27.6B
- Only remaining item on economic calendar for today is NAHB Housing Idx at 10a ET

Seeing a Bit of Pressure Ahead of New Year, Similar to Day Before Christmas Eve

Morning Notes

- Overseas mkts are mixed with Asian markets (note: Nikkei is closed) closed up while the European markets are currently down (note: DAX is closed)
- Shanghai showed some noticeable strength, closing up 1.8%
- In China MNI Business Condition Survey posted a drop

Happy New Year

- In UK, housing prices increased for the first time since May 2010
- Crude lower again (see yesterday’s action) this morning
- Gold up this morning
- S&P futures are down in the pre, about 3.25 handles from FV, trading right along S4 pivot level
- Just to recap, S&P is up about 12.8% YTD and up about 6.5% MTD
- In corporate news, IMAX is up 13% in the pre on reports from the UK Daily Mail that SNE may be interested in the co.
- Meanwhile, BGP is down over 17% in the pre no report that it delayed pmts to certain vendors while trying to refinance
- Select European markets (including the FTSE) are closing early today on this New Year’s Eve holiday
- No economic data releases scheduled for today so the quiet trading will likely resume today

If You Are Trading Today, You Will Probably Contribute 1/10000 of Today’s Volume

Morning Notes

- Overseas mkts mixed in the overnight:
- Asian mkts closed down (-20 to -80bps)
- Meanwhile European mkts have seen mixed action thus far

City Around The Holidays

- Irish gov’t confirmed plans to take control of AIB, according to CNBC
- November Durable Goods Orders: -1.3% vs. -0.6%; prior revised up to -3.1% from -3.3%
- November Durable Goods Ex Trans: +2.4% vs. +1.9%; prior revised up to -1.9% from -2.9%
- Initial Jobless Claims: 420K vs. 420K; prior revised up to 423K from 420K
- Continuing Claims: 4.064M, down from 4.167M
- November Personal Income: +0.3% vs. +0.2%; prior revised down to +0.4% from +0.5%
- November Personal Spending: +0.4% vs. +0.5%; prior revised to up +0.7% from +0.4%
- November PCE Prices m/m: +0.1% vs. +0.1%
- We do have some additional economic data out today including UMich Sentiment @ 9:55a ET and New Home Sales @ 10a
- Expecting not much reaction (or action) in the mkt following economic numbers
- Bond mkts close @ 2p today
- S&P futures pulled in below S3 a little past 8a
- S&P futures are down 1.75 handles from FV

Finally, Some Economic Data to Spice Up the Market!

Morning Notes
- Overseas mkts mixed in the overnight
- Asian mkts were mixed w/ Shanghai down 90bps and the Hang Seng up 20bps
- European mkts are flattish

Spice Up the Market!

- There were reports out that China may buy Portuguese sov debt (Dean has been talking about how there have been some great deals on sov debt for a few months now)
- China’s debt purchase may help assuage debt issues in Portugal (Portuguese bond yields pushed higher nonetheless today)
- This week has been extremely quiet, volumes- and new-wise
- There are at least a few items on the economic calendar for today to help provide a little bit of action
- Q3 GDP (third estimate): +2.6% vs. +2.8%; first revision: +2.5% from +2.0%
- Q3 GDP Deflator: 2.1% vs. 2.3%; first revision: 2.3% from 2.2%
- S&P still flattish after an initial pull back after GDP release
- Dollar seeing a little bit of pressure following GDP release
- Existing Homes Sales @ 10a ET
- S&P futures are up half a handle from FV and trading b/w S3 and R3

Light Volumes + No Pivot Signal Generated = Indecision

Morning Notes
- Light volumes in the overnight
- Hang Seng down the most, closed -1.3%, on concerns over monetary policy measures (Shanghai Comp down 50bps)

Indecision in the Market

- China and Hong Kong upgraded (Asian mkts were closed already when the announcement was made)
- German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in better than expected
- UK raised 2011 inflation forecast, as expected
- Commodities have been fairly quiet this morning
- FDX reported an earnings miss this morning, pulling in the futures as well
- S&P futures traded right up against R3 just before FDX earnings
- S&P futures not on a pivot signal this morning, trading between S3/R3
- Initial Jobless Claims: 420K vs. 425K; prior revised up to 423K from 421K
- Continuing Claims: 4.135M from 4.113M
- November Building Permits: 530K vs. 560K; m/m chg: -4.0%
- November Housing Starts: 555K vs. 545K; m/m chg: +3.9%
- Futures not reacting to data releases
- Philly Fed number out at 10a ET

Fairly Muted Action Ahead of FOMC Rate Decision Today

Morning Notes
- Overseas markets seeing muted action ahead of FOMC rate decision today at 2:15p ET
- Asian markets were up small
- In Japan, Industrial Production and Cap Utilization were revised down

Fairly Muted Action Ahead of FOMC Rate Decision Today

- UK CPI rose slightly higher than expected
- Switzerland raised its 2011 GDP forecast
- Germany revised its 2010 and 2011 GDP forecast up
- Eurozone Industrial Production came in slightly worse than expected
- Gold up this morning
- Dollar showing weakness again
- Other economic items on the calendar for today: Business Inventories at 10a; FOMC decision at 2:15p
- Bank of India announced rate hike
- That along with BBY earnings at ~8a brought in the futures
- November Retail Sales: +0.8% vs. +0.5%; prior revised up to +1.7% from +1.2%
- November Retail Sales Ex Auto: +1.2% vs. +0.6%; prior revised up to +0.8% from +0.4%
- November PPI m/m: +0.8% vs. +0.5%; prior was +0.4%
- November Core PPI m/m: +0.3% vs. +0.2%; prior was -0.6%
- Futures recovering after the 8a pullback
- S&P futures are trading just below the R3 pivot level, up about 1.75 handles from FV
- Futures are on the R3 sell pivot signal

Will End of Month Trading Help Boost Stocks or Push Them Even Lower?

Morning Notes
- Weakness in the pre market, erasing much of yesterday’s late day rally
- S&P futures down about 11 handles from FV and continue to press lower
- Euro seeing even further weakness today
- Eurozone debt concerns still appear to be one of the main culprits for the mkt weakness
- European markets are holding up better than Asian markets did
- Nikkei closed down nearly 2%;
- Strength in yen added pressure to Nikkei
- There are still concerns around China tightening their monetary policy
- A few items on the economic calendar today: Case Shiller @ 9a ET; Chicago PMI @ 9:45a; Consumer Confidence (CB) @ 10a
- Also note that today is the last day of the month so that may add another dimension (volatility?) to the trading session