Tag Archives: Continuing Claims

Thursday Morning Notes: On Track for Best Q1 Performance Since 1998

HedgeFundLIVE.comMorning Notes

- Muted tone in overnight and the future continue to trade in a tight range this morning
- Mixed action in Asia with Nikkei closing up 50bps while Shanghai Comp closed down 90bps
- In Europe, German Retail Sales came in worse than expected
- Eurozone CPI came in higher than expected
- Euro printed new highs following CPI release
- German Unemployment Rate came in better than expected
- Initial Jobless Claims: 388K vs. 380K; prior revised up to 394K from 382K
- Continuing Claims drop to 3.714M from 3.765M
- Only minor minor pullback following claims number- may not even be a result of the claims figure
- Update on Libya: foreign minister Moussa Koussa has defected to Britain; NATO taken sole command of no fly op; CIA in Libya now interacting w/ rebel forces to gather intelligence and better understanding of the politics there
- Euro weakening, suggesting ECB will not reveal plans for liquidity facility to aid Irish banks in conjunction w/ release of stress test results
- S&P futures are down about 2.25 handles from FV ahead of open
- Market’s Q1 performance is the best since 1998, up over 5%
- Slew of economic data releases scheduled for today: March Chicago PMI at 9:45a ET; February Factory Orders at 10a
- Also, Fed Speeches throughout the day

Libyan Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa Defects to Britain

Thursday Morning Recap: Market Pointing Higher, Are Bulls About to Take Firm Control?

HedgeFundLIVE.comMorning Notes

- Mixed trading in the overnight
- Nikkei and Shanghai Comp closed down marginally
- In China, Manufacturing PMI showed expansion
- In Europe, Moody’s downgraded 30 Spanish banks
- A clearing house in Europe, LCH Clearnet, increased margin to 35% on Irish bonds
- Bond yields have gone up as a result
- Concerns growing that Portugal will need a bailout after Parliament rejected austerity measures
- Portugal PM resigned as a result of vote to reject austerity plan
- European bourses are up small
- Unrest in Middle East continues
- Israeli Defense Forces shelled targets in Gaza after more rockets were launched into Israel
- Syrian security forces persist in cracking down on protestors in Dara- 25 more protestors may have been killed
- A “Day of Departure “ is being planned for Friday in Yemen- those loyal to President Ali Abdullah Saleh clashed with army units supporting opposition groups
- February Durable Goods Orders: -0.9% vs. +1.1%; prior revised up to +3.6% from +3.2%
- February Durable Goods Orders Ex Trans: -0.6% vs. +2.0%; prior revised up to -3.0%
- Jobless Claims: 382K vs. 380K; prior revised up to 387K from 385K
- Continuing Claims fall to 3.721M from 3.723M
- Small pullback following latest dose of data
- S&P futures are up 7 handles from FV ahead of the bell

Portugal Prime Minister Socrates Resigns


Markets Rebound- Note That Economic Data Releases in Asia Have Been Postponed

HedgeFundLIVE.comMorning Notes

- Asian markets closed down and Nikkei was very volatile, down as much as 5% at one point
- However, Nikkei recovered off LoD to close down 1.4%
- Hang Seng closed down 1.8%, Shanghai Comp closed down 1.1%
- Major blackout in Tokyo is probable
- Japan may use military to pump water to the No. 3 reactor
- U.S. gov’t aiding U.S. workers move from affected areas in Japan
- Note that economic data that is normally scheduled in Asia have been pushed back
- Crude off to a strong start
- Dollar weak
- Update in Middle East: UN agreed on draft resolution to impose no fly zone over Libya, which will be voted on later today
- The U.S. has voiced support of no fly zone and also said that UN should be ready to consider next steps (beyond no fly zone implementation)
- Situation in Bahrain not improving it seems- six opposition activists were arrested by Bahrain gov’t; also Bahrain imposed a curfew and warned people not to gather in public places
- February Core CPI: +0.2% vs. +0.2%
- February CPI m/m: +0.6% vs. +0.4%
- Initial Jobless Claims: 385K vs. 387K; prior revised up to 401K
- Continuing Claims drop to 3.706M from 3.786M
- February Industrial Production: -0.1% vs. 0.6%
- S&P futures were open 20 handles from FV ahead of the open


China’s Largest Trade Deficit in 7 Years + Spain’s Downgrade Give Way to Weakest Premarket Activity This Week

HedgeFundLIVE.comMorning Notes

- Weakest premarket activity this week
- Global markets are down on negative macro news items
- Starting with China- trade balance came in much worse than expected and showed a deficit, which was largely unexpected; note that this $7.3B deficit is the largest that this figure has been in seven years
- In Japan, Q4 final GDP came in weaker than expected, -1.3%
- Japan revised Q4 GDP down
- Bank of Korea hiked rates by 25bps, expected
- Asian markets closed down notably with the Shanghai and Nikkei both down 1.5%
- New Zealand cut rates
- China CPI number will be released tonight (US time) and this figure is one to keep an eye out for
- Spain was downgraded one notch by Moody’s, adding to pressure to European markets
- Note that bunds initially spiked on Spain’s downgrade news
- UK trade balance came in better than expected
- German trade balance came in worse than expected
- Oil seeing a bit of a pullback this morning
- S&P futures are down nonetheless, about 9 handles from FV ahead of the bell
- In the Middle East, reports that Gaddafi may agree to talks about potential transition of power; meanwhile, fighting continues in Libya; continued bombing of oil port town, Brega
- Gold and silver are lower this morning
- Jobless Claims: 397K vs. 376K; prior revised up to 371K from 368K
- Continuing Claims dropped to 3.771M from 3.791M
- January Trade Balance: -$46.3B vs. -$41.5B; prior revised up to -$40.3B from -$40.6B
- Futures pulling in following claims number
- On tap for rest of today: Treasury Monthly Budget Statement is out at 2p
- Treasuries seeing bit of a bid as equities are weak this morning
- Macroeconomic numbers finally surfacing and hitting the markets

China Trade Deficit- Largest in Seven Years


Hugo Chavez Must Be the Answer to World Peace, Markets Rally

HedgeFundLIVE.com - Morning Notes

- Strength across the board in overseas markets except for the Shanghai Comp, which closed down 30bps
- Weakness in China attributed to reports out suggesting that China would increase its RRR again in March
- China’s Non Manufacturing PMI showed a decline from prior month and was worst reading in two years
- Nikkei had a solid day, closing up 90bps with strength attributed to yday’s decent ADP number
- European markets all up this morning
- UK and Eurozone Services PMI came in weaker than expected
- In line Eurozone GDP number
- ECB left rates unch’d at 1%, expected
- Gold and crude oil currently down
- Pull back in oil comes as reports that Arab League is in talks for a peace plan from Hugo Chavez
- The peace talks would be mediated by an ally of Gaddafi and Chavez
- Plan would involve a commission from LatAm, Europe, and the Middle East, according to Al Jazeera
- Chairman of the rebels’ National Libyan Council says there would be no such talks with Gaddafi, however
- Libyan warplanes continued to bomb the oil terminal town, Marsa El-Brega, for second day in a row
- US still believes no imminent plans to impose a no fly zone; NATO appears to stay hesitant to impose a no fly zone; anti gov’t rebels in favor of no fly zone
- Initial Jobless Claims: 368K vs. 395K; prior revised down to 388K from 391K
- Continuing Claims falls to 3.774M from 3.790M
- Futures rallying upon claims number release
- Trichet Press Conference started at 8:30a- some hawkish comments out of the ECB President
- Trichet states that: price outlook carries risks to the upside; strong vigilance is warranted to curtail price stability; ECB prepared to act to fight inflation
- Trichet Press Conf spiked the euro to new highs
- S&P futures are up 12.25 handles from FV ahead of the open
- ISM Services number out at 10a today

Hugo Chavez, The Answer


I am at a loss, Both in my P&L as well as the market

I am at a loss, both in my P&L as well as my understanding of the market. Perhaps it is time for me to hang up my trading gear. Hand it over to the next generation who are not set in the ways of the past. I have lost too much money in the last week as a bear. AAPL is down 1.2% and the NASDQ is up 21 basis points. If I don’t see a reversal today in the overall market by the end of the day I will be flat all my positions and stay off the keys for a month. It is very difficult to accept as; I do not believe m bearish perspective is steeped in emotion. My arguments are logical. I am shocked that portfolio managers have not sold into what has been the best opening 45 days of a fiscal year that we have seen in many years. Logic no longer prevails. Greed is the defining emotion. I have tried to stomach through it. Yesterday the firm made $25,000. Today we are down $42,000 at 12:47pm. We are net short. We are on the verge of either making what would be an R3 pivot signal ling a reversal and one would expect the market to move down. We are also 1 handle from making a new high on the futures. I have bet big for my last time this month. On the astrological futures trading forecast, we have very bearish indicators for the remainder of the day. I did not see the upward moves in the futures today as convincing. There was no amplitude. I have not seen a V reversal in a very long time. Tomorrow many managers will be out as they begin a long weekend. There is real geopolitical risk out there. It is only logical that managers would take risk off into the end of the day. So as they say, the stars seem aligned, but every time I have felt that way, nothing has come to fruition. I am exhausted from fighting the tape. I was up significantly in the first 5 days of the month and now find myself down significantly as we are close to the final week. The time has arrived. By the end of this day I will no longer be in this position of uncertainty. I will be out of the market for the foreseeable future, or vindicated.

Warships on the Way to the Suez Canal- Futures Have Barely Sold Off So Far

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Morning Notes

- Somewhat lackluster performance overseas
- China came out with some relatively strict property policies geared to curb property speculation- 15 new measures were implemented
- New property measures hurt property stocks in China
- Nonetheless, Shanghai Comp was able to closed in the green, albeit marginally
- Hang Seng, which has less real estate exposure than the Shanghai Comp, closed up 60bps
- Upbeat earnings in Japan helped boost stocks, and the Nikkei closed up 30bps, which actually puts the Nikkei up >6% YTD
- S&P futures are similar to yesterday in the premarket- down about 3.5 handles from FV
- Initial Jobless Claims: 410K vs. 408K; prior revised up to 385K from 383K
- Continuing Claims: up to 3.911M from 3.910M
- Core CPI m/m: +0.2% vs. +0.1%; prior was +0.1%
- CPI m/m: +0.4% vs. +0.3%; prior was +0.4%
- Headlines crossed the tape that an Iran Navy official confirmed that two warships are on the way to the Suez canal
- Futures reacting negatively to this news while brent crude rallied
- European markets are flat to down small
- On the economic calendar for the rest of today: Leading Indicators at 10a; Philly Fed at 10a

Hedge Fund Live - What to do about the warships

Finally Some Economic Data to Stir Things Up

Morning Notes

- Notable weakness across the board this morning
- Shanghai is the exception, which closed up 1.6%
- Meanwhile the Hang Seng closed down 2%
- No single catalyst behind this action in China
- European mkts are down, with tech names leading the way to the downside as CSCO got pummeled after earnings last night
- AKAM also hit after earnings after the close yday
- ECB Monthly Report showed interest rates are appropriate and inflation could rise even further (temporarily, however), and is likely to remain above 2% for most of this yr
- BOE kept interest rates unch’d as well as their asset purchase program
- Gold and crude are lower this morning
- Dollar showing a lift
- Finally getting some economic data today
- Initial Jobless Claims: 383K vs. 410K; prior revised up to 419K from 415K
- Continuing Claims fell to 3.888M from 3.935M
- Other items on calendar:
- Wholesale Inventories at 10a
- 30yr bond auction results out at 1p
- Treasury budget statement out at 2p

Egypt Concerns Tempered, But Still on Investors’ Minds

Morning Notes

- Seeing bit of pressure in global markets this morning
- Nikkei finally getting a small pull back, closed down 30bps
- Note that in observance of the Lunar New Year both the Hang Seng and Shanghai are closed (Shanghai was closed beginning yesterday for the holiday)
- Eurozone Services PMI came in net better than expected
- UK Services PMI among those that came in better than expectations; note that their December PMI number somewhat surprising had shown contraction, which now in context with today’s solid number suggests that the December number might have just been a bad weather related blip
- Nonetheless, European bourses are generally lower- they have bounced off their morning lows though
- ECB left rates unch’d, as expected
- ECB Pres. Jean Claude Trichet held a press conf. at 8:30a
- Among other thing, Trichet said loan growth is still sluggish
- Trichet also mentioned that money mkts are showing signs of better functioning
- More key takeaways from Trichet’s speech: upward inflationary pressure due to energy and commodities, but prices should remain contained/in line w/ price stability in the medium to long term
- Crude is trading higher again this morning
- How crude is affected by Egypt situation: Egyptian PM tried meeting w/ opposition groups today, but some groups refused to engage in talks with him => speedy resolution doesn’t seem like it’s going to happen, which is raising concerns that there might be a larger disruption in the Suez Canal, i.e., oil supply would be impacted
- Separately, Egypt was downgraded by Fitch w/ a Negative rating watch
- Dollar is also up, adding pressure to futures
- S&P futures are down a handle from FV
- Initial Jobless Claims: 415K vs. 425K; prior revised up to 457K from 454K
- Continuing Claims fall to 3.925M from 4.009M
- Q4 Unit Labor Costs: -0.6% vs. +0.1%; prior was -0.1%
- Q4 Productivity: +2.6% vs. +2.2%; prior was +2.3%
- Other items on the calendar for today: ISM at 10a; December Factory Orders at 10a; Bernanke’s Speech at 1p

Japan Downgraded a Notch- Not Too Detrimental to Markets

Morning Notes

- Mixed action in the overnight session
- S&P downgraded Japan after their markets closed- initial pull back off that news, but has since recovered
- Weaker yen helped push Nikkei close green on the day, up 70bps
- Shanghai Comp had a nice day, up 1.5%
- European mkts mixed with no real catalyst to push stocks in either direction
- Gold is sporting small gains while crude is down
- S&P futures flat in the pre, on the S3 buy pivot signal
- Initial Jobless Claims: 454K vs. 410K; prior revised down to 403K from 404K
- Continuing Claims: 3.991M from 3.897M
- Latest jobless claims data pushed down futures
- Durable Orders: -2.5% vs. +1.5%
- Durable Orders Ex Trans: +0.5% vs. +0.6%
- Durable Orders number is somewhat disappointing as well, seeing that analysts were expecting an increase, not a drop
- Pending Home Sales at 10a
- 7 yr note auction out at 1p
- Note: NYMEX/COMEX will open at 10a due to snow in the NE region