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10 Crazy Fidel Castro Moments (Nuclear Missles, Mini Cows and Abolish Money)

HedgeFundLive- As he is an expiring “Player” on the world scene and Hedge Fund Live is committed to keeping you informed of “Players” comings and goings, here is a quick Fidel Castro update. The Wall Street Journal says that he has had a number of epiphanies. He has recently commented that Nuclear Missiles are a bad thing. He apparently would like to see the use of money obsolete on the island of Cuba. Rumor also has it that he hopes to sell coffee machines with an added bonus of genetically bred miniature cows so you can squeeze a mini utter in your kitchen for milk. Yes it may seem that he has lost his mind. But in truth these are just recent examples of his usual antics. He has had a number of embarrassing moments over the years, which were clear signs of a dictator gone mad. Here are candid photos of him in 10 of compromising positions.  Match the photos to the correct text description.  Responses posted at the bottom of this blog.




2. Fidel has a passion for cross dressing and makeup





9. Fidel trys to get Steve Jobs’s attention, wants to do Apple commercials






4. Fidel is too stoned and hung over to face the crowd






10. Castro caught flipping the bird at Condoleezza






3. Fidel reveals he wears tighty whities, says boxers dont hold it together for him






1. Fidel breaks wind and pisses off Hugo Chavez






7. Fidel shows off his new pecs






5. Fidel failing to strike fear in the hearts of his fellow Cubans, hopes a Batman stuntman might help his image






8. Fidel Caught at Scores, he was told, “no touching”, the manager said




6. Fidel loves the Austin Powers movies- he has photoshop posters in his villa




Responses: a-10 (Castro caught flipping the bird at Condoleezza); b-8 (Fidel caught at Scores, he was told, no touching the manager said); c-7 (Fidel shows off his new pecs); d-9 (Fidel trys to get Steve Jobs’s attention, wants to do Apple commercials); e-5 (Fidel failing to strike fear in the hearts of his fellow Cubans, hopes a Batman stuntman might help his image); f-4 (Fidel is too stoned and hung over to face the crowd); g-3 (Fidel reveals he wears tighty whities, says boxers dont hold it together for him); h-6 (Fidel loves the Austin Powers movies- he has photoshop posters in his villa); i- 2 (Fidel has a passion for cross dressing and makeup); j-1 (Fidel breaks wind and pisses off Hugo Chavez)

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Technical Analysis- The proof is in the Pudding

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Technical Analysis lecture by Prof. Mosk

Over the past two weeks I have been learning about technical analysis. Mark the head trader on the Day Trade Well desk has said to me on numerous occasions, “the market likes too test levels.” And on numerous occasions I have witnessed this statement hold true. During our morning strategy session I asked Mark, “what do you think the market will do today?” His response was, “I think we test the 1300 level on the spooz.” Sure enough we tested that level today making a low of 1297.5 on the spooz. For me what validates technical analysis is with or without news, such as the Middle East crisis, the market finds a way to test their levels. Case in point, last week Mark had a short target on Apple around 363, noting this was a level of resistance. Then the news about Steve Jobs being seen at Stanford’s Cancer Clinic was released and the selloff began. Since then, the stock has fallen 20 points right into an optimum buying level which was 338.75 which it reached today(low of the day was 338.61). This level was Mark’s buy target for Apple. Coincidence, or do the markets truly respect their technical levels?

Market Hedge Strategy - Markets gone wild because of crazy people

HedgeFundLIVE.com — The market has been disrupted by the madness in the Middle East. In particular, the price of oil has caused fluctuations. My gut feeling is that the trouble in the ME will not be over within a couple weeks (sarcasm). There are different ways to hedge against quick pops/drops that the market should continue to experience. Here’s a few ideas:

Markets disturbed

VIX calls: in or out the money, its doesn’t matter, but they should be long-term to avoid time decay. Wait to get into these until the VIX settles lower again. This is a swing strategy and could last from a week to a month, definitely set a profit-take level.

VIX puts: as of this morning the VIX is abnormally high, result of yesterday’s sell-off. April 15 puts are 10 cents, and look like a quick play while the VIX inevitably resets itself.

DBO: an oil ETF that has been on a roll. May want to wait for a pullback, as the action it saw yesterday was abnormal, a good level to buy is around 28.40. The price of oil should continue to rise for many months for many reasons. Also the fund seems to go up whether the stock market does or not, having a low correlation to an unpredictable market is good for hedging purposes.

Wednesday Market Expectations From Jeremy Frommer - Short into Friday, Flat for the Weekend

"My dear Sarkozy, is it true? Are you deserting me as well, my sweet desert?"

My market expectations depend on a number of events. I understand that I have been unequivocal about my short-term bearish stance, but I also have been specific about the levels I have been looking for on the S&P. I have felt we needed to get down to the 1308 level on the S&P futures. I expected us to pause there and perhaps over a number of weeks test the reality of 1300, as a confirmed psychological barrier that we broke through that should now become support. That would signal to me that my long-term bullish stance is still in place. Given the uncertainty over inflation, the federal budget and our domestic municipality financial crisis, I think we have seen the highs for at least a month, perhaps into May. Though, I am not a believer in sell in May and go away. This has been a year of opposites; perhaps we buy in May, and stay. I expect Gaddafi to be dead or gone by the end of the weekend, problem is we have now learned you cannot be long going into a weekend. My greatest fear for the weekend is Bahrain. People do not realize that this is the one to closely watch, as it is a precursor to potential issues in Saudi Arabia. I am relatively dollar neutral this morning having covered a significant portion of our shorts on yesterdays gap down. I will look for early morning strength, or at least stability. At noon I will begin building back into a larger short position, which I will continue to add to though Friday morning. I look for significant weakness by Friday afternoon, barring an exogenous event such as a bullet in Gaddafi’s head. Names I am long, continue to be potential take out names, I am short stock near their 52-week highs. This is an exogenously driven market; there are significant concerns out there. While I will be making big bets, I will be taking them off rapidly. Holding periods will be no longer than a few days and I expect to be close to flat over the weekend. Our domestic issues take second place to problems abroad, but should not be forgotten.  I will provide an afternoon expectation blog at around 1pm

Tuesday Market Expectations From Jeremy Frommer - 7 Reasons the Stock Market is Suffering From Narcissistic Personality Disorder

The Stock Market is Screwed Up, and So Am I

After writing a number of articles about the market being delusional and then a number of articles about me being a little delusional I finally sat down with my wife to get what always promises to be a dose of reality coupled with simple but incredibly valuable insight. Unfortunately the conversation was precipitated by 3 days of intense yoga followed by 3 days of alcoholic binging that made me wonder if it was time for me to call Betty Ford and look up my old psychiatrist, Dr. Prazin. My wife diagnosed me and in doing so helped me diagnose the entire financial community, and even more specifically the stock market.  She said she had been doing some research and has determined that I suffer from Narcissistic personality disorder. Determined to heal my self and improve my trading, I decided I would try to better understand my disorder and at the same time better understand the market.

Narcissists have an inflated sense of their own importance. Check there for both the market and me.

Behind the mask of ultra confidence lies a fragile self esteem, vulnerable to criticism. Check there for both the market and me.

But that doesn’t mean that the market and I are true Narcissists as defined by the mayo clinic. It may just be that we have healthy confidence in our opinions, high self esteem. I don’t value myself more than I value others, (a key component of narcissism) though I often dream of having zero responsibilities, packing a bag and going off grid for a while…. In truth I look around me, and am blessed to be surrounded by great people who are invaluable to me.

The market though, is another story. The market has been behaving like a certifiable narcissist. The market seems to have little concern for the value of others. It wasn’t always this way.

Lets review 7 symptoms of narcissism.

1. Is the market expecting constant praise and admiration? “The S&P 500, up 4.2 percent so far this month, has doubled in less than two years, the quickest 100 percent jump since the Great Depression.” This headline is all over the net. “I’ve never seen a market like this,” said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services. A market watcher for 35 years, he is taking profits in every area but commodities.” The market is thriving on these headlines.

2. Is the market exaggerating its achievements? “Slowly, but at least so far surely, bullish sentiment continues to grow. It is now perilously close to dangerously high levels.” Say Mark Hulbert of MarketWatch. In the short term this should be bad news for stocks. But the market just seems to ignore these sentiment indicators.

3. Does the market believe it is special and acting accordingly? “The rest of the world has an interest in the US recovery because of its stimulating policies, Mr. Bernanke argued in prepared remarks he plans to deliver in Paris as finance leaders from the Group of 20 nations gather.” Mr. Bernanke seems to think we are special according to newsystocks.com.

4. Is the market taking advantage of others? Reuters Feb 17th “Energy shares gained alongside

Narcissistic Personality Disorder starts at the top

crude oil prices, which climbed 1.5 percent on fresh tension between Israel and Iran. The tension added to concerns about unrest in the Middle East, which could lead to supply disruptions.” Many energy stocks are hitting multi year highs. But on the flip side “California’s average price for a gallon of regular gasoline hit $3.50 Thursday for the first time since 2008, driven higher by the impact of Middle Eastern turmoil on the oil market. California’s average gas price has jumped 8 cents in the past week and now stands at 35 cents above the national average, according to the AAA automotive service. San Francisco‘s average has reached $3.57, while drivers in San Jose are paying $3.53 per gallon. Not since October 2008 has California’s gas prices been this high. In June of that year, the state’s average set a record of $4.61 before the economic collapse pushed gas prices into a tailspin.” Says David Baker from chronicle news service. I fell taken advantage of when I fill my tank up at the station. Really think about it, do you ever come out of a gas station lately feeling good. The oil companies can poison our waters, get away with it, and the funnel clean up costs through inflated prices masked in middle east tensions.

5. A classic Narcissistic symptom is ones inability to keep healthy relationships. It is months now where individual stocks seem to dominate the indexes but broad stocks don’t seem to participate in the movement of the indexes. No one can tell me what the value of overbought or oversold indicators are, since all the market does is power forward. In fact Goldman Sachs market watcher Noah Weisberger had this to say on the phenomenon, in a recent note.

“Within the U.S. market, where we have the richest set of metrics, we find that both implied average stock correlation and implied average sector correlation have declined sharply so far this year. Mechanically, the decline in this metric is a function of a combination of falling index volatility and rising sector volatility (in the case of implied sector correlation) or rising single stock volatility (in the case of implied stock correlation). These measures reached historic highs during the depths of the 2009 sell off. But in the “post-crisis” era, both stock and sector correlations peaked in mid-2010 (at a whopping 0.9 for average implied sector correlation and 0.7 for average implied stock correlation) and both measures have been falling in fits and starts ever since.”

6.  Narcissists set unrealistic goals. Zacks investment research Steve Reitmeister says in answer to the direction of the market “I strongly believe the answer is that we are due for more gains. Not just because there is no double dip. More importantly, there are sound fundamental reasons for the market to continue its advance.” So do many of his peers. Stock markets to not continue to advance indefinitely without healthy reversals.

7. Arrogance and haughty behavior often accompany a diagnosis of narcissism.

A. Headline MSN money Feb 4th: Ignoring Egypt, markets roar on. The political crises sweeping the Middle East join the risks of unresolved economic issues at home. Yet speculators continue to run wild.

B. Reuters Feb 10th: (Reuters) - Investors are often told not to fight the Fed, but in the U.S. Treasuries market taking the opposite stance to the Fed has been a winning strategy in the past six months.

C. FTMdaily reports: Stocks Ignore Growing Inflation Concerns

Arrogance and Haughtiness are acts of ignoring other’s opinions. to hold their opinions in disdain.

I have felt there was something wrong with the stock market for at lest the last couple of weeks. But I could not put my finger on it. But it is no relief to now know that one thing I had come to rely on for my livelihood, is so very ill.

The Mayo Clinic says, “It’s not known what causes narcissistic personality disorder. As with other mental disorders, the cause is likely complex. Some evidence links the cause to a dysfunctional childhood, such as excessive pampering, extremely high expectations, abuse or neglect.” I could find evidence of all of the in the history of the stock market.

Complications of narcissistic personality disorder, if left untreated, can include depression and even suicidal thoughts. I think the flash crash was the first indication there might be something wrong with the market, but I hope my research help you better understand what is truly going on with today’s stock market. And when the market falls into a brief state of depression, and correction, don’t be surprised. We are dealing with a classic Narcissist and there is no real cure. I expect depression to set in on tuesday, and suicidal thought by friday for the Stock Market. Buyers Beware.

Socratic Trade Review: MOS (Mosaic)


According to an article on Investors Business Daily, MOS was named another big winner in their study of market leaders. Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) climbed 620% in 70 weeks as fertilizer firms have returned to the spotlight on rocketing grain prices.

Check out this Socratic Trade review by Hedge Fund Live Trader, Jeffrey Tynik, as he recorded a trade placed in MOS almost 13 months ago.


You don’t need to be thinking immortality - you need to be thinking hit the 7 iron!

With Mark Moskowitz back in the office heading the Day Trade Well Channel I wanted to change my blog up a bit from the usual stock picks/thesis to a something more geared towards psychology and the mental battles we face daily while trading.

To fill everyone in,  Mosk and I have both played competitive golf throughout our lives and when he first started training me we would relate every trading situation to golf, especially anything that related to mental strength.  As most know golf is probably the most mentally taxing sport out there, lucky for me the most taxing job/game is trading.   So from taking loses, to taking a breath, to leaving on a good note everything in trading relates to golf.

The one example I want to talk about  today is knowing when to back off,  Laying up instead of going for it. (If you have ever scene Tin Cup you know what I’m talking about)

This month hasn’t been the best for me.  I was sloppy for the first week before tightening it up and putting together what I felt were my two best trading day’s of the year.   Last Thursday and Friday were solid days, they weren’t the best as far as PNL but I traded well, I added alpha and I was up nicely.   I wanted to point out that I was still up nicely because I’m not a believer in the I did everything right today it just didn’t go my way attitude, I know it works for some but for me it’s a way to meritocracy which can quickly turn into dismal performance.  I tried it for two year’s playing College Golf, I was told to just go through your process and ever else will take care of itself”, maybe that work’s for others but it sucks for my personality, as I have to look at the bottom line.  In golf it was the number on the card at the end of every round and in trading it’s the PNL.

So here’s my dilemma, the last few days I have been trading alright but I’ve been taking a bath in one position, Entropic (ENTR).  If you have followed by blogs in the past, you know I blew out of ENTR at the lows, $7.75 to be exact right before it rallied to $14.  ENTR is also the first position I put on at this firm so I have a little bit of history.  Anyway, it cost me $1,200 the last few days and I’m starting to get antsy.

I started a small position in ENTR last week and on the open Thursday it showed weakness but rallied to close on the high’s putting in a hammer candle at an import support level on the $10.00, with that constructive action I doubled my position at the close from a measly 500 shares to 1000 shares.  ENTR than again saw buying into the close Friday so I took my position up to 1500 shares.  On the open Monday we saw substantial buying as the stock rallied 5% in the opening 20 minutes before topping out at $10.75.  I sold into the move but was quick to buy the stock back and add into the position.  ENTR pulled back 75 cent’s closing back at the figure.  Clearly someone has been selling the stock and the odds of an up day tomorrow aren’t looking great.

When I think of the situation I’m in I think of the movie Tin Cup.  This is a very cheesy comp but it will work.  Every time Roy McAvoy (kevin Costner) get’s to the 18th hole he attempts to get home in two, 18 is of course a par 5.  One day there’s wind other day’s there’s doubt and either was he has never successfully knocked it on in two yet he has witnessed the glory from a far.  In Entropic I sat on the sidelines as my initial call rallied 100%, so I think I have a handle on the name.  Unfortunately, there has been wind in my face as someone has been dumping this thing since Monday morning and unlike McAvoy I’m not going to blow the whole tournament because of my ego.  I have the same 2500 shares on I had last night and I’ll take my shot tomorrow morning but if I start to see the same selling I’ll be quick to take the position down immediately and wait for ENTR to stabilize before getting in for the potential run up to $17.

Will someone tell this idiot he doesn't have to hit it from there

It’s very important to know when to lay up and when to go for it, the last few days I have been going for the green with the wind straight into my face and if that same wind is present tomorrow I’ll be laying up.


Last week, we sold CSCO at $21.99, for a profit of $240. While I can’t say we had any amazing insight into the next earnings report filed by Cisco on Friday, we did take a very disciplined approach to investing and sold when the stock hit our price target. Cisco reported drops in both earnings and gross margins that have contributed to its drop from $22 to its current level of about $18.70. In the long run, I still believe CSCO to be a good long term, value investment; however, due to the time constrained nature of the university desk investment fund, it is not likely to come back into CEF’s portfolio.

Trader Rehab Again - I take my book down to zero

Trader Therapy - I got screwed

I was wrong. The market did not pull in and my thesis did not play out as I expected it to. Perhaps the lesson is, a bull can’t morph into a bear. Perhaps the position was too big relative to the risk.  The most difficult rule a trader needs to live by, is never do anything today that jeopardizes your business tomorrow. As such while I have been looking for a pull back in the market for 2 weeks, and was able to maintain a relatively small loss in the face of a strong upward trending market, I could not survive Friday without breaking the aforementioned rule. As I entered the day Friday, it appeared as though all my patience would pay off. I had called right that Mubarak would not back down, and the market was selling off. And then an utter reversal, Mubarak changes his mind less than 24hrs later. This is what I have referred to as a complete exogenous shock. Unfortunately for me, who was quite bearish, this took me by total surprise and to a threshold of pain that I would endure no further. I did what all career traders do under those circumstances; I liquidated all positions and cut down to zero. When you are wrong as a trader and have reached your pain limit, continued misperception that you will be right and further losses are not acceptable, even if the very next day you would have been absolutely correct. While I took a significant trading loss on Friday, my firm remains strong and can begin its battle back to make up for Friday’s trading loss. And while it may take time to make it back as the risk will be paired down significantly, I will find myself in what I refer to as trader rehab. I will step away from the keys for a week or two. When I return, I will trade small as I attempt to regain my confidence.  Hopefully the other traders will rise to the occasion and start our path back toward success. I will focus on the business as a whole. The business on a whole is thriving. Its success far exceeds the trading loss. Trading losses can be recovered relatively quickly. Business success cannot afford to give ground. When you are an entrepreneur like myself, there is an inner force that keeps you moving forward in the face of adversity. You do not look past with regret, you look forward with newfound knowledge. A survivor in this business always rises to the occasion, always suffers setbacks and always rises again. I have suffered through many business and personal losses and celebrated numerous personal, trading and business triumphs. That has been my way for my entire career, my entire life. And probably the balance of what I hope will be a lengthy journey. I would venture to say, you the reader have had similar experiences. What defines us all, is “if and how we move forward”. The best way to see how my journey continues is to tune into hedgefundlive.com


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In the mood for some fried chicken Yum!

Overnight we held 1000 shares of YUM(owns KFC Pizza Hut and Taco Bell). During the morning trading we added into our levels down to about 49.14. Throughout the rest of the day the trade continued to work for us on a slow grind up. It was great to see how a trade like this plays out. What I learned is sizing into a positon is important ie: if we would have purchased all the shares at once we would not be able to by at lower levels, if we sold it all too early we would not have profited all the way up. As each day goes by the more excited I am to get on the keys and enter my first trade.