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Tag Archives: Shanghai Comp

Still Quiet with No Catalysts to Get in the Way of This Rally

Morning Notes

- Weakness in China, whose markets finally opened back up after being closed for the Lunar New Year
- Shanghai Comp closed down 90bps while Hang Seng closed down 1.4%- note that the action there was in response to China’s rate hike announced yesterday
- More news out of Asia: military talks b/w N.Korea and S.Korea have broken down (KOSPI closed down 1.2%)
- In Europe, markets are mixed
- UK data showed trade deficits greater than expected
- Crude oil showing a bit of strength this morning- note that an API report showed that oil inventories fell somewhat unexpectedly
- On the agenda for today: Bernanke to make his testimony at 10a; $24B 10-yr note results at 1p
- So again, no major catalysts, no economic numbers to get in the way of this rally- note that yesterday the mkt made a new 52 week high
- Instead focus is brought to earnings and M&A names
- Ag names like POT, MOS, IPI, AGU, CF, DE, CNH, AGCO will also be in play as the USDA released a report today for Feb. global supply and demand estimates for major crops- corn and wheat are highlights since both are trading at 52 week highs
- Estimate report showed cuts in corn inventory levels- fell 3.5% globally, fell 9.4% in the U.S.
- Soybean and wheat inventory levels declined as well
- S&P futures are down small this morning, about 4.5 handles from FV

Lackluster Start to the Day with Few Catalysts to Push the Markets This Week

Morning Notes

- Global indices mixed in the overnight
- Nikkei closed up again, ~40bps
- Shanghai Comp will finally reopen tomorrow after being closed for the Lunar New Year
- Hang Seng closed down 30bps, with real estate stocks leading the way to eh downside
- There was a rate hike in China, adding a bit of pressure to global markets
- China increases rate by 25bps, marking the third rate hike since October 2010
- Rate hike, however, was not a huge surprise
- European markets mixed
- German Industrial Production came in weaker than expected
- Gold is seeing a little bit of strength this morning
- Commodities generally weak, perhaps weighed down by China’s rate hike
- Dollar showing a bit of weakness
- IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism at 10a; JOLTs Job Openings at 10a
- 3 yr note auction results out at 1p today

Whipsaw Action Following Nonfarm Payrolls Release

Morning Notes

- Strength across the board for major global indices
- Shanghai Comp and Hang Seng remain closed for the Lunar New Year
- Nikkei closed up 1.1%, steel names largely leading the way as a result of Nippon Steel/Sumitomo Metal Industries merger
- Australia raised its GDP forecast by 50bps (+4.25%) while interest rates were left unch’d
- Reports in Australia that cyclone impact not as great as feared
- European markets trading higher, no real catalyst there
- UK Halifax Housing Price showed increase in prices, which was somewhat unexpected
- Dollar pulled in to lows ahead of nonfarm payrolls number
- Nonfarm Payrolls: 36K vs. 148K; prior revised up to 121K from 103K
- Nonfarm Private Payrolls: 50K vs. 163K; prior revised up to 139K from 113K
- Unemployment Rate: 9.0%; prior was 9.4%
- S&P futures rallied into the payrolls data release, but sharply pulled in after release; continued to trade in whipsaw fashion

Egypt Concerns Tempered, But Still on Investors’ Minds

Morning Notes

- Seeing bit of pressure in global markets this morning
- Nikkei finally getting a small pull back, closed down 30bps
- Note that in observance of the Lunar New Year both the Hang Seng and Shanghai are closed (Shanghai was closed beginning yesterday for the holiday)
- Eurozone Services PMI came in net better than expected
- UK Services PMI among those that came in better than expectations; note that their December PMI number somewhat surprising had shown contraction, which now in context with today’s solid number suggests that the December number might have just been a bad weather related blip
- Nonetheless, European bourses are generally lower- they have bounced off their morning lows though
- ECB left rates unch’d, as expected
- ECB Pres. Jean Claude Trichet held a press conf. at 8:30a
- Among other thing, Trichet said loan growth is still sluggish
- Trichet also mentioned that money mkts are showing signs of better functioning
- More key takeaways from Trichet’s speech: upward inflationary pressure due to energy and commodities, but prices should remain contained/in line w/ price stability in the medium to long term
- Crude is trading higher again this morning
- How crude is affected by Egypt situation: Egyptian PM tried meeting w/ opposition groups today, but some groups refused to engage in talks with him => speedy resolution doesn’t seem like it’s going to happen, which is raising concerns that there might be a larger disruption in the Suez Canal, i.e., oil supply would be impacted
- Separately, Egypt was downgraded by Fitch w/ a Negative rating watch
- Dollar is also up, adding pressure to futures
- S&P futures are down a handle from FV
- Initial Jobless Claims: 415K vs. 425K; prior revised up to 457K from 454K
- Continuing Claims fall to 3.925M from 4.009M
- Q4 Unit Labor Costs: -0.6% vs. +0.1%; prior was -0.1%
- Q4 Productivity: +2.6% vs. +2.2%; prior was +2.3%
- Other items on the calendar for today: ISM at 10a; December Factory Orders at 10a; Bernanke’s Speech at 1p

Futures Are Up in the Pre, Friday Repeat Possible?

Morning Notes

- Egypt continues to dominate the headlines, and the country received a downgrade on its debt with a negative outlook from Moody’s, suggests another downgrade is quite possible
- Uncertainty and turmoil in Egypt is adding pressure in global markets, with most major global indices trading down
- One exception is the Shanghai Comp which closed up 1.4%, no particular catalyst, but utilities, industrials, and materials led the way
- Yen strengthened, adding further pressure to the Nikkei, which closed down 1.2%
- Gold and resource stocks trading higher, may be a flight to safety move
- Prelim eurozone CPI number came in higher than expected inflation, contributing to the weakness in European bourses today, though they have recovered off their lows
- Crude oil continues to show a bit of strength
- December Personal Income: +0.4% vs. +0.5%; prior revised up to +0.4% from +0.3%
- December Personal Spending: +0.7% vs. +0.6%; prior revised down to +0.3% from +0.4%
- We have Chicago PMI data out at 9:45a ET
- S&P futures are up 6 handles from FV, which is good to see after Friday’s ugly action
- Spooz are technically on the S3 buy pivot signal and currently trading between S3 and R3 pivot levels

No Catalysts Will Probably Make for a Quiet Monday Session

Morning Notes

- Not much out over the weekend
- Nikkei closed up 70 bps while Shanghai Comp closed down 70 bps
- European PMI came in slightly less than expected, which added some pressure to the European bourses
- Commodities mixed- crude down, gold up
- S&P futures are flat in the pre market
- Nothing on the economic calendar for today
- The Fed will be main focus this week as they begin a two day meeting tomorrow with a policy statement out on Wednesday]
- Expecting quiet Monday trading today as there are no potential catalysts scheduled

Some Relief After Worst Weekly Performance Since November

Morning Notes

- Premarket strength at last
- Shanghai finally got a bounce in the o/n, closing up 1.4%
- On the flip side, Nikkei closed down 1.6%, which is the worst performance Japan has seen in two months
- European bourses are up this morning, financials leading the way for the most part
- German IFO data came in better than expected, which also rallied the euro
- UK December Retail Sales came in worse than expected- analysts are pointing to poor weather for those results
- Commodities are mixed
- Oil up, nat gas up, gold weak, silver weak
- S&P futures are up 8 handles from FV, breaking through the R4 pivot level- hence, we are on the R4 buy signal
- S&P is down about 1% for the week, worst weekly performance since November
- There is nothing on the economic calendar for today
- Note that today is January options expiration

Weakness in the Pre, Particularly in Asia

Morning Notes

- Looks like the leaked China CPI number from yesterday was spot on: +4.6%, in line with expectations
- China GDP and Industrial Production beat expectations
- China’s gov’t stressed that inflation would stay high, at least in first half of yr
- Rumors that PBOC may take action before Feb. 3 (Chinese New Year)
- All of the above weighed down Chinese stocks- Shanghai closed down nearly 3%
- Notable weakness across Asia: Hang Seng closed down 1.7% and Nikkei closed down 1.1%
- European markets trading slightly lower as well
- German PPI came in higher than expected, suggesting slight inflation
- Commodities lower in the o/n
- Initial Claims: 404K vs. 420K; prior revised down to 441K
- Continuing Claims: down 3.861M from 3.887M prior
- Remaining on the economic calendar for today: Existing Home Sales at 10a; Philly Fed at 10a
- S&P futures opening on no pivot signal, trades between S3 and R3 pivots

Leaked China CPI Number Boost Chinese Stocks

Morning Notes

- China CPI number appears to have been leaked a day early- the rumor, which was probably leaked by a PBOC source, is that the CPI number would be in line (+4.6%)
- Recall: last month China CPI came in notably higher than expected at +5.1%
- A controlled CPI number would stem the need for further tightening in China
- The leaked data boosted indices in Asia, with the Shanghai Comp closing up nearly 2%, Hang Seng up 1.1%
- Nikkei was up 40bps- tech stocks were strong following solid IBM and AAPL earnings last night
- Japanese yen showed some strength, hindering further gains in the Nikkei
- Europe trading mixed to relatively flat this morning- the bourses have pulled back from opening highs
- There was a report out that Germany is looking at the potential effects of a debt restructuring
- Also there was a relatively successful 1 yr debt auction in Portugal
- Dollar seeing further weakness
- December Housing Starts: 529K vs. 550K
- December Building Permits: 635K vs. 554K
- December Housing Starts m/m: -4.3%
- December Building Permits m/m: +16.7%
- S&P futures down about 4 handles from FV
- Fairly tight pivots for the Spooz today
- Spooz on the S3 buy signal, trading between S4 and S3

Solid Gains in the Pre to Kickstart 2011

Morning Notes

- Seeing nice strength in the premarket this morning
- China manufacturing PMI posted a decline m/m while non manufacturing PMI came in better m/m

Kickstart the New Year

- Shanghai Comp is closed today however so mkt reaction to comment on
- Nikkei is also closed
- Hang Seng is open and closed up 1.7%
- Eurozone manufacturing PMI came in better than expected
- German PMI came in lighter than expected
- Currencies and commodities markets seeing light volume- again, note that China, Japan, and the UK closed today
- Dollar is up small
- ISM Manufacturing and construction spending numbers out @ 10a ET
- S&P futures are up 10 handles from FV, trading above R4 pivot
- In corporate news, BAC agreed with Freddie and Fannie to resolve repurchase claims and the bank expects to take a $2B Q4 impairment charge for residential mtge loans sold by BAC affiliates directly to the GSEs; BAC is up 4.5% in the pre