James B. - (2/22/10 - 4/2/10) "Moved On"

James Broderick

Weekly Desk Notes

Week Ending 3.26.2010

March 22, 2010

• JF
• Last night the passage of the health format
• Futures are lower, the bill was passed by 3 votes
• Euro is trading at 1.35
• Gold and oil are down
• On Friday was the triple which options expiration
• Rolling average tick indicator had been very overbought is now sitting at 644,
• 3 days in a row when the tick falls means relatively over bought
• Hedge up the portfolio or take down some longs just to tread lightly
• Took a gift and chopped around the rest of the day
• Plan of the day is to chop it around the whole day, but market is very quiet

MM

• Will short into the rally
• Looking to place shorts right on R4 today
• Will restrict the whole web page soon
• Portfolio
• SVU
• Exit half the position of dell
• WDC- outright sell it
• Holding Disney
• STX- hold because it is on support  add into this
• Increase by 20%
• IMAX- Hold
• TOT-
• AMEX-
• CNK looks very good positive looking name
• Look up Bwin and OBAMA healthcare
• AGM
• Likes GRM
•  

Juda

• BA- few upgrades
• City group
• AGP medical after a passage of the healthcare bill
• SPF and BZH downgraded
• RYL downgraded
• STI- downgraded
• WDR
• Entire homebuilder sector downgraded
• LMT- aerospace and defense industry downgraded
• STI- SunTrust regional banks downgraded
• Wants to build a position in SunTrust
• OMX- downgraded at Goldman Sachs
• JACK- downgraded at JP Morgan
• JEF- tichondero securities
• FHN- First horizon at So lay
• BPOP- downgraded at B riley and co
• Update on health reform
• Passed the bill yesterday
• No republicans voted for the bill
• The last few democrats came in Obama saying that Fed funds will not be used on abortion
• To some extend the amount of side dealings is unprecedented
• It is so horrendous that OBAMA is using side dealings to pass bills
• Finance reforms are not going to be too far behind
• The people in office now are going to stick us with this complicated deal
• This is making people nervous about the financial service
• Come 2018 be prepared for a 40% increase in your healthcare tax
• The Government tries
• The good things that are going to come out of this bill are not going to happen till 2014 and taxes are going to start immediately
• A lot of the stuff in the reconciliation bill are failing
• We have to see what happens in the senate this is far from over
• Republicans are trying to let this pass
• They are sitting around and waiting till that moment and then they are going to rip this thing to shreds
• Because of this Obama is going to have a hard time getting re-elected
• Because the employment rate went up, Clinton was a hero
• Execution traders always start with biggest positions and make your way down
• Dean
• Xidex has been really weak
• Forecast for march auto sales has been rising over the past month
• Tontine has made a statement that it is going to sell its shares
• Regardless of the fundamentals people are going to sell their stock
• Google
• More certainty that Google could announce its plans to fully exit china
• Bowing BA
• One of the reason airline stocks are so strong is that they parked a lot of planes and they took in capacity
• They announced they are going to be accelerating its production boosts
• They have increased demands for aircrafts
• Everyone that follows Bowing is upgrading the stock
• Analysts are seeing a huge production cycle coming down the pike
• Will look to enter the position advantageously
• Bad news on palm, RIMM is looking to make a palm look alike
• Disney
• Private equity looking to buy Miramax
• Gores Brothers
• Record short positions in natural gas
• One link will get us 1000 hits on the website
• Neptune Orient lines boosting capacity by 7%
• There are 1000 of boats parked off the coast of Singapore
• Over the last decade GSL, SSW, DAC,
• FSLR could be a 75$ stock
• CEO of BAC is going to China
• Solar names look like their dead in the water
• FSLR, ENER,
• Been a downtrend ever since
• AIG talking about how Hank Greenberg, CEO of AIG
• Sold most of his AIG stake at 28$ dollars when the
• Sold his stock in a deal that was 21% below Fridays close
• Peaked at DEC of 06
• Shine Power Alley
• Start by saying if the market continues will we continue to see a squeeze
• Not being in to many of these names is a good idea
• Monumental day yesterday  and SNP is down 8 points
• JF wants to hear when stocks turn on a dime
• One of the weaker sectors is the foreign banks
• IRE AIB NBG
• Lloyds
• BPOP
• Barclays
• Most of his names are all red
• ABK up 5%
• Will continue to watch palm
• Be short as he was throughout the day
• Shine made a lot of money selling silver puts
• SLV is now 16.35
• Sees that gold names and silver names are showing weakness on the open
• Regional Bank Names
• GAME
• GAME Stop
• Bad management at Supercuts
• Continue to watch airlines and foreign banks
• MM –
• Futures are back and forth between 1148 and 1149
• GE trading threw 17.90
• After Market
• Going to have April 15^th our full target launch date

March 23, 2010

• JK
• Futures are flat to fair value
• Moved up fairly quiet over seas
• Existing home sales at 10
• This number is interesting because a it is a February number
• This number may come in light cause of the snow
• JT
• Open interest presented in shares equivalent
• Just put strike not strike price calls or puts
• Move 5 day over to Colum d
• A box in to itself is going to be the spies
• 30 day rsi relative to the spies in the 30 day under the 30 day rsi
• Red is overbought
• Green is oversold
• When you do models assume that the person does not know anything
• Never do anything without understanding

JK would rather see this before expiration

• Seeing the number of their stocks are on which signals
• This model is perfect for the week before options expirations
• You are looking for derivative data

Juda

• ADP and Paychecks
• CHA China  telecom
• SKS department store
• BAIDU
• Downgrades
• BECN
• FULT Fulton financial
• WSM at citygoup hit a 52 week high yesterday
• REIT space downgraded
• Real-estate Investment Trust
• STEI SEI,  coming out of a recession people are going shopping for funeral plats more than going for cremation, 52 week high yesterday
• RODM
• IBM
• IPXL generic drug space back on Nasdaq
• Assign out a project to frosh or trainees
• List of research firms
• You should know what analysts have the actual ax in each stock
• Find out what some of the rating sites say about the top analysts
• Us news just had an article that had information on the most underwater real-estate and where were the big areas
• If it gets toppy JF wants to go against them he always wants to go against the analysts’ predictions
• Calls that are priced based are over reactive
• When companies get their bottom lines under control this past all the small businesses

Unlike previous recessions the companies he covers have done much more in cost cutting then they have in previous periods

• That means that if their fixed cost is cut down
• If the company cost 5 dollars to run and you make
• Exponential increase- keeping fixing costs low a small uptick in revenue will make for a great increase in profitability
• JF looks to do the opposite, if credit is starting to flow again, there is a gap up in employment numbers

Dean

• TPC rallied, already used 32 mil of the 100 mil of net buyback shares
• Suppressed at the rally
• We sold 30-40% of the position into the rally
• We missed some of the run because of lower levels
• Goog
• Had redirected traffic to its google.cn site
• Google set it up so that if a mainland person can go on Google without any difficulties and it just gets decoded, it might be slower because of routers in different positions
• If you own Google you have factored this into your analysis
• Add a small piece of Google
• Alternatives are china is going to block Google,
• A line is being established here between china and corporate America that they accept this and want to save face
• If they take it further they are going to not interfere with new settings
• Come up with possible solutions for Google
• Google is down, due to this news
• Bidu has been up and down. Reaction to the perception
• Repetition always, never tweet editorial always tweed facts
• Google is going to continue Rand D and have an office there
• Sina,
• SOHU
• By 2018 cars will be able to drive itself
• Financial reform senate banking committee  of Freddie and Fannie
• Any banks on S3 buys he wants to take on a trade
• Moody’s says their likely to downgrade major banks if financial reform is downgraded
• Should be rated on balance sheets instead of the underlying government
• JF thinks that if we come to a point when the government support is pulled back that by definition is revenues are going to pick up along with everything else. The public is going to view this as a vote of confidence
• Palm is going to stop permitting the Palm Pre and start Permuting the Droid instead
• Palm as a going concern
• ZLC adjusted an investment offer from Apollo
• Airlines AMR issued a Q1 outlook
• So was CAL and So was DAL
• Tokyo steal is raising prices again
• ENER announced that they have a new CFO
• Neo Solar- twain is expanding capacity faster than originally planned in 2010 increasing its target by 33 %,
• Shine Power Ally
• A week ago the Vegas names have gone crazy in the last day or 2 LVS.
• WINN
• MPEL
• Every day like clockwork the names should be out there.
• On around 50% of the position
• Execution
• In what time frame
• Time and value are the two most important factors of any scenario
• Do you have any parameters
• Lighten up above that level don’t sell it below it
• Make sure things are concurrent
• Doesn’t feel like we have to do that much of anything
• Zach add into names
• STX
• Dell
• IMAX
• TAKE2
• CYSCO
• GLW
• CQB
• CIT
• Dow peaked in the first 2 weeks of January
• If you don’t trade it with full size then it will end up haunting you when it comes back
• Today is Tuesday we are going to have 1 on 1s
• Good outlook for shares