Marc S. - COO
I KnowThe Market Will Crash In Next 15 Days..
HedgeFundLIVE.com — The reason I know can be summed up in one word. JackShuman.
Who or what is JackShuman? Jack is the only person I’ve encountered that can decipher what the universe is telling us as regards the S&P 500. Jack is an astrologer and astronomer. He has spent perhaps 35 years of the most intense study, trying to understand the nuances of Jupiter’s many moons, and how certain rays will positively or negatively affect the market. And the thing is, I’ve seen it work. I say unequivicaly, and with all seriousness, that Jack has many times given me a perfect chart of the S&P 500…..days before it traded that way.
I was raised in a Jewish, modern orthodox home, sent to yeshiva. I was taught to appreciate the cyclical nature of the world. Good and Bad things occur to the Jewish nation in the same time periods for millenia. Why can’t the same be said for the stock market? In the Bible, Pharaoh decreed all first born Jewish males be drowned in the Nile River. Why not just cut their heads off? Suffocate them at birth? The reason given is, Pharaoh’s stargazers saw that the next Jewish leader will die because of water.
They knew that they could not change what the planetary allignments were indicating. Therefore drowning seemed like the best way to achieve their goals of killing the leader while fulfilling what was ‘pre-destined’. (Moses was given the death penalty by God for striking a rock in anger to bring forth water).
I know that there will be times when Jack’s timing is off, and he will have to recalculate and recalibrate time and position of the constelations. I know he may see death of the S&P by water, but that could mean a trader spills on his keyboard and execute far too many contracts causing a quickly rectified flash crash. Jack is a soothsayer. The real deal. Jack quoted Shakespeare last week and said “Beware the Ides of March”. I will. And so should you.
You can find Jack during our daily live broadcast from 8:00am est til 5pm est. Only on HedgeFundLIVE.
Get connected.
Weekly Trading Plan To Make $100,000, But Forgotten On Sabbath
I have visions every weekend. It usually starts on Friday night when everyone else is asleep and the house is perfectly silent. Thoughts began to formulate as to how I could have traded better the past week. How I could have squeezed out a few more nickels on this trade, cut my losses on that trade. But then I push those thoughts aside. After all, its the Sabbath, and I should focus my mind on holier pursuits. More often than not those pursuits involve how much I will drink before 10:15 the next morning. My inner demons and angels fiercely battle each other over whether I should be spending more time pouring out my heartfelt prayers, or going downstairs to my locker and pouring out some tequila into a plastic cup. When tomorrow comes, I opt for the latter.
Suddenly, the man with the herring has become my best friend. I dont even know his real name, just whatever nickname his friends call him. But he has matjes from Schwartz’s (no relation), and I have refined (or sullied) my taste buds. We barter alcohol for herring.
It is a delicacy I now require to complete my transformation from, arguably, cool and young, to inarguably, old with a mouthful of smelly fish.
But to get back on track, it is at this exact moment when I have the epiphany on how and what I will trade this week to make $100k.
The only problem is, I can’t write it down because it would be a violation of the Sabbath. And by the time Saturday night rolls around, its like putting together parts of a dream. It all made so much sense before but now there is too much of the strategy I can’t remember. Was I buying high beta technology while shorting banks and crude futures, or going long delta neutral correlated pair spreads, with an outsized long position in utilities? So in my neverending pursuit to find God and make some money along the way, I’ve decided to cut out the drink and pray routine, usually refered to as Kiddush Club.
To some this may seem a pretty easy thing to accomplish. I hope those people are right. But based on the amount of people that I see every week performing the same ritual with ruthless efficiency, I’m a little concerned with the prospect of failing.
If I succeed, will I begin every week with the perfect trading plan, clearly written and strategized, due to my newly acquired state of crystal clear, non alcoholic thinking? Or have these perfect plans really been hallucinations brought on by excessive consumption of Omega 3 oils embeded in every piece of Shmaltz herring? Stay tuned to my live broadcast at HedgeFundLive.com Mon - Fri 8am - 5pm , pick a channel and get connected.
Welcome Failed Dictators
Its difficult to concentrate on today’s trading knowing that my neigbor Gaddafi might be showing up any moment. Perhaps I should great him with a quorum of 10 Jews wrapped in prayer shawls to express their morning prayers. Maybe he has a sense of humor and will find it amuzing? I won’t find it amusing since he killed the parent of a friend of mine over Lokerbie.
One thing is for sure, and that is the markets is going to take a breather here from its relentless grind ever higher. My portfolio was net short high beta names to the tune of 750K. I have aprox 70 names short, all very snall and spread across sectors. I covered much of that position by buying nasdaq futures yesterday. I will look for any pop to sell those futures, and add into some more names on the short side.
This pullback should take place over a few day. We will need more clarity as to what the current arab governments plan to do, as well as what new regimes will be in power. But there is one certainty right now…that we are completely uncertain as to how this will shake out. But in the meantime, oil and gras prices will go higher, and that will affect the consumer, the main driver of our economy.
I look forward to some volatility that could be a boon for the short term trader.
What time are those warships arriving?
Technically And Figuratively Speaking
Technically, the S&P is overbought based on RSI and Stochastics.
Figuratively, nobody gives a damn.
For reasons I can’t explain, I want to short this market with every fiber of my being. And I do early on every day, until around 3pm. Then I buy futures and cover some of my shorts. I also sprinkle in a few long oil names like HAL or XOM. And every day that trades pays off. I don’t know why, and I don’t care. I ask Dean, my partner and PM, as well as every trader on our desk the same thing each day. Why shouldn’t I make this trade? Has the market done anything differently in the last 2 weeks? The answer is in the positive P&L during that period.
I have not made any substantial money during these last 2 weeks. It took me a while to figure out just how little this market cares about being overbought. It took me a while to take the path of least resistance. Its never too late to make the right trade.
Technical Outlook
***S&P E-MINI (MAR) 02/14/2011: Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory
which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market’s close above
the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The
market setup is supportive for early gains with the close over the 1st swing stochastic
resistance. The near-term upside target is at 1342.06. The market is approaching
overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around
1336.62 and 1342.06, while 1st support hits today at 1317.88 and below there at
1304.57.
NASDAQ (MAR) 02/14/2011: Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some
caution for bulls. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above
the 9-day moving average. With the close over the 1st swing resistance number,
the market is in a moderately positive position. The near-term upside objective
is at 2405.43. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70.
The next area of resistance is around 2395.12 and 2405.43, while 1st support hits
today at 2361.38 and below there at 2337.94.
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not assure its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Hartfield Management, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
Situation Wanted
30 year veteran in the field of dictatorship looking for new country to rule. I am an out of box thinker, willing to stick to my convictions. I was able to maintain (cold) peace with former enemy, despite its nearly universal disapproval amongst my constituents. Successfuly negoitiated annual stipend in the billion$$ from country of infidels. Until recently, was able to control military forces using such tools as bribery & nepotism.
Salary Required: None. Most experts opine that my worth is over $40 billion. Yeah, maybe after Switzerland freezes half my assets.
Send replies to: [email protected].
I Give Up….for P&L
Instead of fighting the good fight, I surrendered. Since last week, I watched as they squeezed my short names from 3:00pm til 4:00. Every day losing a chunk of P&L. I decided today that it was time to be on the right side of that trade. I took $2mm in short futures and flipped…now long $2mm. I took $1mm of equities short position and covered. All for the sake of some quick P&L, and some sanity. And just like the sun will rise in the east tomorrow, they reversed names, and spiked the futures after the cash close. As my partner Dean says, Kaching!
I admit to giving in, being weak. Who knew that it felt so good?
A Green Bay Game Plan
Congrats to the Packers. The Super Fun is over, and while Glee is owning the all the attention of my oldest child, I am writing out my weekly gameplan.
This week I plan on having a more two sided book. That means I will add to my daily trading long names that look strong, short names that look weak. I am willing to get into size on the daytrade long until that trade doesn’t work. I will short, but will take profits more quickly, until this market shows me a real pullback or correction is underway.
If the market continues to rally at the end of every day, with the S&P’s making new highs from 3pm on, I will go long futures. I will do all these things until the market shows me a different face. Right now its showing me only one face. People are buying beaten down stocks. Weak stocks early get bought up before the close. If a stock was strong early, barely exhibiting a pullback, buy it because it will continue to make new highs into the close. This is whats been happening, and I trade what I see, not what I want to see. If i see a reversal off these trends I will reassess.
I am down money this month on a trade error, and convinced myself that it was ok to be short those 25 stocks I accidentaly put into my account because eventually we will have a pullback. Unfortunately, thats not my style of trading. I hate being the first to the party. I missed all the fun of the relentless drive higher, which I usually take advantage of. And all for the wrong reason. Sometimes it takes a few days to recognize what it is that brings you, as a trader, out of your rythm. I recognized it, and on Friday adjusted my position. I added some pair names, so that I would have names reday on both side of the market ready to bring in the P&L.
A new week, and I’m excited about all the different ways to make money. I am preapred to take whatever the market gives me. And make sure its all done with appropriate risk controls including apropriate position sizing, not fighting the tape, and a balanced portfolio with hedge.
Now that the Super Bowl is over, its Game on to trading. Bring on the Hedge fund LIVE chearleaders, ready the cameras, light the lights, and get ready for the closeups. Who knows, Maybe the Black Eyed Peas will show up.
Halftime Musings
Is it possible Christina Aguilera really messed up the national anthem so badly? I feel like we’re all being Punk’d.
How many times can Ben Roethlisberger pretend that he’s hurt, then run at (his) top speed showing no ill effects? It reminds of the kid in high school who would pretend he didn’t study for the test and then get a 98%. Its a weak hedge against a poor performance.
I had no idea Usher sings OMG with the guy from Black Eyed Peas. I feel kind of stupid not knowing that.
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