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Jeff T. - Equities Trader

10 Craziest Gaddafi Moments/Eccentricities

1) Nursing Staff - Gaddafi relies heavily on his long-time Ukrainian nurse, Galyna Kolotnytska, who has been described as a ”voluptuous blonde.” Of the rumored staff of four Ukrainian nurses that cater to the Leader’s health and well-being, one informant emphasized to multiple Emboffs that Qadhafi cannot travel without Kolotnytska, as she alone “knows his routine.”

Gaddafi and the 38 year old Super Nanny

When Kolotnytska’s late visa application resulted in her Security Advisory Opinion being received on the day Gaddafi’s party planned to travel to the U.S., the Libyan Government sent a private jet to ferry her from Libya to Portugal to meet up with the Leader during his rest-stop. Some embassy contacts have claimed that Qadhafi and the 38 year-old Kolotnytska have a romantic relationship. While he did not comment on such rumors, a Ukrainian political officer recently confirmed that the Ukrainian nurses “travel everywhere with the Leader.”

2) Female Body Guards - His recent travel may also suggest a diminished dependence on his legendary female guard force, as only one woman bodyguard  accompanied him to New York.  In the past Gaddafi has traveled with a group of 30 - 40 female security guards that are rumored to be virgins.

And now There is One

3) Self Promotion - When applying for Gaddafi’s visa, one of his staff asked whether it was necessary for the Leader to submit a portrait of himself that fit consular application regulations, noting that his photo was displayed throughout the city and that anyone of hundreds of billboards could be photographed and shrunken to fit the application’s criteria.  When the rule was enforced, Gaddafi’s staff reluctantly conceded to take a portrait of the Leader specifically for the visa application.

4)  The Man likes his Tent - When one of Gaddafi’s staff began to search for proper accommodations for Gaddafi, he informed us that the Leader must stay on the first floor of any facility that was rented for him. (he separately told U.S. officials in Washington that Gaddafi could

Nothing Say's Humility like Billboard Advertising

not climb more than 35 steps.) He than cited this requirement as the primary reason that the Libyan residence in New Jersey was selected as the preferred accommodation site rather than the Libyan PermRep’s residence in New York City. The member of Gaddafi’s staff also sought to find accommodations with room to pitch Qadhafi’s Bedouin tent, Qadhafi’s traditional site for receiving visitors and conducting meetings, as it offers him a non-verbal way of communicating that he is a man close to his cultural roots.

5) Who fly’s for more than eight hours? - Gaddafi’s dislike of long flights and apparent fear of  flying over water also caused logistical headaches for his staff. When discussing flight clearances with Emboffs, the staff explained that the Libyan delegation would arrive from Portugal, as Gaddafi “cannot fly more than eight hours” and would need to overnight in Europe prior to continuing his journey to New York. His staff also revealed in the same conversation that Qadhafi does not like to fly over water. Presumably for similar reasons, Gaddafi staff also requested a stop in Newfoundland to break his travel from Venezuela to Libya on September 29.

6) Gaddafi‘s Trusted Staff - Gaddafi appears to be almost obsessively dependent on a small core of trusted personnel. This group coordinates the logistics of Gaddafi’s visit. This group balanced the UNGA preparations between equally frenetic preparations for the August 31 African Union (AU) Summit and September 1 celebration of Gaddafi’s coup.  At large events such as the August 31 AU Summit and September 1

Seriously, Who Travel's without their Tent?

celebrations, the group takes care of every last detail of these complex gatherings, ranging from the overall program to the position of the press pool. Long-time Gaddafi Chief of Staff Bashir Salah appears to play an equally important role in Gaddafi’s personal retinue, via an old-fashioned green phone. It is next to a red phone, which presumably connects to Gaddafi himself. We constantly hear that National Security Adviser and son, Muatassim, also plays a key role as his father’s confidante and handler during travel abroad. Muatassim also seems to have been tasked with insuring that the Leader’s image is well-preserved through the full array of carefully-planned media events.

7)  Gaddafi loves Flamenco Dancing - In addition to the personality quirks revealed through Gaddafi’s travel to New York, the Gaddafi’s preferences for dancing and cultural performances were displayed over the last month. The three-day spectacle of his 40th anniversary in power included performances by dance troupes from Ukraine, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, and Morocco, as well as musical performances by bands from Mexico, Russia, New Zealand, and a number of other nations. Gaddafi appeared particularly enthralled by Tuareg horse racing during two of the events, clapping and smiling throughout the races. The flamenco dancers that participated in his celebratory events appeared to spark a similar interest, as Gaddafi decided to stop in Seville (for a “personal trip” according to the Spanish Ambassador here) on his way back to Libya from Venezuela specifically to attend a flamenco dance performance.

8) The Awkward Silence - When Hilary Clinton was briefed for a meeting with Gaddafi she was told Gaddafi is notoriously mercurial. He often avoids making eye contact during the initial portion of meetings, and there may be long, uncomfortable periods of silence.

9) Well Traveled - One member of his staff described Colonel Gaddafi’s attitude to the U.S. as ‘childlike’, quoting him asking: ‘How much of New York… will I get to see?’ and ‘Is Washington far from New York? Do you think I might have time to visit?’

10) Gaddafi knows how to have a temper tantrum - A previous release from WikiLeaks revealed that dangerous nuclear material was left on an airport runway because Colonel Gaddafi threw a tantrum after being refused permission to pitch a tent outside the UN.  The Libyan leader allegedly went back on a promise to dispose of weapons-grade uranium after the diplomatic spat and the highly-enriched material came close to cracking its containers and leaking into the atmosphere.

LED’s Down Again

Just two day’s after Illinois based Rubicon (RBCN) beat the street’s estimates and leaped twenty percent  every LED investors favorite analyst was out again downgrading VECO and AIXG.  Friday morning while Jefferies was initiating CREE as a buy and the stock was up 2% premarket Citigroup analyst Timothy Arcuri was downgrading both VECO and AIXG citing the end of China’s MOCVD subsidy.

Arcuri downgraded VECO in late 2010 which lead to a sell off and we saw weakness across the whole space on Friday as the Jefferies initiation was short lived and CREE quickly went negative on the day.  In his not Arcuri is cited saying “We are convinced subsidies are effectively over”.

In Arcuri’s downgrade in late 2010 he had comments from Yangzhou about the end of its subsidy program. Now,  he is saying “our new checks in Wuhu — the other big LED manufacturing area  support a similar conclusion. To that end, we are convinced there have been no new subsidies awarded over the past several months and that the current China order pipeline starts to run dry in Q3. While utilization is directionally improving in Korea/Taiwan, it is hard to see it making up for a big falloff in China.”

Aixtron shares were down by 5% on Friday. Veeco shares were down more than 6%.

Aixtron shares were up 12% year-to-date, while Veeco shares were up 17% year-to-date before Friday.

With RBCN beating last week I felt good about the prospects for LED names as CREE started to show some strength after weeks of dead money following disappointing earnings, but this downgrade has got me thinking.  VECO has had a hell of a run following earnings as it has traded from 43 to 54.50 and i think this downgrade will put pressure on the stock for the next couple of weeks.   There is a rumor of a $40 bid out there so if it trades down anywhere close to $40 I’ll be looking a buy as I still like the longer term prospects for VECO and anything LED.

CREE has been beaten up following earnings so putting on a CREE/VECO (Buy CREE, Short VECO) spread might be a smart and interesting way to play these names for the next few weeks.  The RBCN/AIXG spread has been a great trade, that is if you could find a borrow and I think the CREE/VECO spread could work out nicely as well.

Could Tablet’s be the Next Bubble?

Fred Hickey certainly thinks so, Here are a couple excerpts from the letter:

I’ve seen a lot of crowded tech categories before, but this is comical. The makers will all build too much tablet inventory based upon their optimistic internal forecasts. That will lead to an epic glut and then a pricing bloodbath, as they try to give the stuff away. It should make for some great short-selling opportunities among the tablet component makers later this year. For now, we’re in the unbridled optimism phase for tablets.

Apple currently dominates the tablet market. Other than Samsung’s Galaxy Tab, there was virtually no competition for the iPad in Q4. Apple has first-mover advantage in the category and also has its App Store – which will make it difficult for newcomers planning to enter the market this year. Just how much competition will there be? An absolutely incredible amount. There are an estimated 80 to 100 new tablet models in development. Every PC maker (HP, Dell, Lenovo, Toshiba), every mobile phone producer (Samsung, LG, Nokia, Research In Motion, Sony Ericsson, Huawei, ZTE), every Asian network builder (Acer, Asus) and even the second largest seller of TV sets in the U.S. (Vizio) are planning to unveil new tablet models in 2011. And they’re all going to obtain 10$-20% market share. Here’s another example of what happens when there’s too much money floating around the world – it leads to mal-investment. In 2000 we had way too much fiber optic capacity built. In 2011, there will be way too many tablets built.

Hickey believes that the overpopulation will lead to price cuts as we have already witnessed with the Samsung Galaxy and I’m sure well see from Motorola when they figure out you can’t sell an $800 tablet when a better version of the same product is already offered.

I agree with Hickey as far as overpopulation and price cuts but I don’t see how this could be negative for the chip companies.  If this market does indeed blow up the chip companies should have business for some time.  If we’ve learned anything from previous bubble’s, they can keep going and going and going.

Watch the LED’s in the AM

Rubicon (RBCN) reported after the bell and easily beat the street.  Fourth quarter EPS came in at 64 cents  versus the street at 50 cents, while  reporting revenues of $29.5 million versus the street at $26.8 million.

The company’s fiscal first-quarter outlook was also strong as it forecast earnings of 62 to 65 cents a share for the three months ending in March vs. the current average analysts’ view of 52 cents a share.

Rubicon is up about 20% after hour’s, but here’s the kicker:

Can you say short sqeeze

That’s right RBCN’s short interest is 62%, so watch out tomorrow as 20% up could just be the beginning.  Also, keep an eye on the other LED names, CREE, VECO, AIXG, and LEDS as this number may put a little giddy up in the whole crew.  AIXG which also reports at the end of the month so the RBCN beat should mean clear sailing into 3/1/11.

With the strength of this number and the short interest in RBCN I think it will be reasonable to say new 52 week highs in the near future.

You don’t need to be thinking immortality - you need to be thinking hit the 7 iron!

With Mark Moskowitz back in the office heading the Day Trade Well Channel I wanted to change my blog up a bit from the usual stock picks/thesis to a something more geared towards psychology and the mental battles we face daily while trading.

To fill everyone in,  Mosk and I have both played competitive golf throughout our lives and when he first started training me we would relate every trading situation to golf, especially anything that related to mental strength.  As most know golf is probably the most mentally taxing sport out there, lucky for me the most taxing job/game is trading.   So from taking loses, to taking a breath, to leaving on a good note everything in trading relates to golf.

The one example I want to talk about  today is knowing when to back off,  Laying up instead of going for it. (If you have ever scene Tin Cup you know what I’m talking about)

This month hasn’t been the best for me.  I was sloppy for the first week before tightening it up and putting together what I felt were my two best trading day’s of the year.   Last Thursday and Friday were solid days, they weren’t the best as far as PNL but I traded well, I added alpha and I was up nicely.   I wanted to point out that I was still up nicely because I’m not a believer in the I did everything right today it just didn’t go my way attitude, I know it works for some but for me it’s a way to meritocracy which can quickly turn into dismal performance.  I tried it for two year’s playing College Golf, I was told to just go through your process and ever else will take care of itself”, maybe that work’s for others but it sucks for my personality, as I have to look at the bottom line.  In golf it was the number on the card at the end of every round and in trading it’s the PNL.

So here’s my dilemma, the last few days I have been trading alright but I’ve been taking a bath in one position, Entropic (ENTR).  If you have followed by blogs in the past, you know I blew out of ENTR at the lows, $7.75 to be exact right before it rallied to $14.  ENTR is also the first position I put on at this firm so I have a little bit of history.  Anyway, it cost me $1,200 the last few days and I’m starting to get antsy.

I started a small position in ENTR last week and on the open Thursday it showed weakness but rallied to close on the high’s putting in a hammer candle at an import support level on the $10.00, with that constructive action I doubled my position at the close from a measly 500 shares to 1000 shares.  ENTR than again saw buying into the close Friday so I took my position up to 1500 shares.  On the open Monday we saw substantial buying as the stock rallied 5% in the opening 20 minutes before topping out at $10.75.  I sold into the move but was quick to buy the stock back and add into the position.  ENTR pulled back 75 cent’s closing back at the figure.  Clearly someone has been selling the stock and the odds of an up day tomorrow aren’t looking great.

When I think of the situation I’m in I think of the movie Tin Cup.  This is a very cheesy comp but it will work.  Every time Roy McAvoy (kevin Costner) get’s to the 18th hole he attempts to get home in two, 18 is of course a par 5.  One day there’s wind other day’s there’s doubt and either was he has never successfully knocked it on in two yet he has witnessed the glory from a far.  In Entropic I sat on the sidelines as my initial call rallied 100%, so I think I have a handle on the name.  Unfortunately, there has been wind in my face as someone has been dumping this thing since Monday morning and unlike McAvoy I’m not going to blow the whole tournament because of my ego.  I have the same 2500 shares on I had last night and I’ll take my shot tomorrow morning but if I start to see the same selling I’ll be quick to take the position down immediately and wait for ENTR to stabilize before getting in for the potential run up to $17.

Will someone tell this idiot he doesn't have to hit it from there

It’s very important to know when to lay up and when to go for it, the last few days I have been going for the green with the wind straight into my face and if that same wind is present tomorrow I’ll be laying up.

SMH’s or INTC?

Recently I have been shorting an equal dollar amount of SMH’s against a basket of Semiconductor stocks I believe will outperform the ETF/Index.  This strategy has been working well but I have been getting killed in the SMH short.  Today I actually decided to take a look at the Index and noticed that INTC and TXN make up roughly 40% .  Once I realized I was basically shorting TXN and INTC  I took a look into the overall technicals in the names and noticed that INTC is trading up into support and closed down 1% today while the SMH’s closed up 50 basis points.

Today at the close instead of hedging my book with only  SMH’s, I shorted $22,000 dollars worth of SMH’s and $22,000 worth of INTC leaving my net exposure at $10,000 while also diversifying my short exposure.

Here’s Intel’s (INTC) Weekly Chart:

- INTC is trading up into resistance of roughly $22.

-  Resistance is both a downward trendline and the 61.8% retracement level off of the recent lows.

-  INTC showed relative weakness today down 1% vs. SMH’s which closed up 50 basis points.

-  My stop on this trade is somewhere North of $23.00 with a profit target of $16.50 which puts my reward/risk ratio at 5/1.5.

MMI: Just when I Thought it Couldn’t get any Worse

When I first blogged about Motorola Mobility (MMI) a few months back I was very bullish of the prospects as they split the company in half and MOT became MMI and MSI.  That bullish blog proved to be correct as MMI was rock solid rallying form $25 to $36 in a few short weeks.  Then a week or so ago I posted a blog where I became bearish after pricing for the XOOM was posted on Best Buy’s website, $800.  When I first saw the post on engadget.com I almost lost it, how does Motorola plan to compete with Apple with that pricing.

MMI pulled back on the initial reaction but had been behaving fairly well the last few days and it was starting to feel like getting back into the pool was the right trade.  That was until this morning when I got an email from Business Insider that Best Buy is now taking pre-order’s for $1,199, I can only ask who the hell is making decisions at MMI because it is a disaster.

I will be looking to short MMI tomorrow morning as I believe Traders will take this news negatively and there should be more pressure on the stock.

Below is the article from Business Insider:

Motorola is ready to ship what may be the most overpriced product in the history of tech: the Android-based Xoom tablet is available for preorder from Best Buy for $1,199.

This is a fairly high-end version of the tablet with a 32GB hard drive and 3G. The Xoom also the first tablet running Android 3.0, the first version of Google’s OS tailored specifically for tablets.

But $1,200? That’ s not just way more than rumored. That’s not just way more than the comparable iPad, which costs $729.

That’s the same price as the 11-inch MacBook Pro, which is Apple’s top of the line portable computer — a full-fledged notebook computer running a full-fledged operating system and a full complement of apps. It’s more than the Macbook Air, which starts at $999. It’s more than most ultraportable Windows notebooks. That’s nearly FOUR TIMES the price of the cheapest netbook PCs on the market.

It even makes Windows tablets look cheap by comparison.

Motorola must be living on a different planet from the rest of us: earlier this month the company decided to charge $500 for Atrix, which is basically a glorified cellphone dock with a screen.

Socratic Trade Review: NXPI

This is a Socratic Trade Review from February 2, 2011 in NXPI.  The most important aspect of this trade is the approach, I used both fundamental and technical analysis to make a positive trade.

NXPI 5 Minute Chart

Premise I: NXPI is a story I like fundamentally for the next year.  NXPI has been showing tremendous strength the last few days and I’m looking to buy into that strength.

Premise II: NXPI was showing disconnect with the market in the opening few minutes of Tuesday’s session.  The market was rallying and NXPI continued to pull back with no news out.  I waited for NXPI to hold R3 (blue dotted line) and I bought 1 lot.  Once I noticed NXPI making higher/highs and higher/lows I quickly bought another three lots.

Conclusion: NXPI quickly started moving in my favor and I continued to offered a lot at the previous day’s high.  Once that lot was lifted I began to reading the tape and sold another two lots when the momentum started to slow.

Commentary: I held the final lot overnight as I will continue to buy weakness for the near future in NXPI.  Overall, I am happy with my trade in NXPI but if I could do it again I would be very aggressive buying pullbacks throughout the day.

1 Year Chart

“You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take” Wayne Gretzky

So here we go for hopefully the third and final installment of the TriQuint Saga.  As I mentioned last night I like the longer term story in TQNT.  TQNT should see tremendous growth over the next few years as 4G networks become commonplace and demand for higher quality RF semiconductor’s accelerates.

Luckily for anyone who still had the stomach or was rational enough to pull the trigger at $12/$11.85 on an over reaction following earnings, Dean, today was very prosperous.  Unfortunately for myself I whiffed, hesitated and missed a great opportunity because I failed to take my shot.

To quote The Great One,  “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take”

TriQuint: What’s the Next Move?

TriQuint Semiconductor Inc.’s (TQNT) fourth-quarter earnings more than doubled as revenue jumped by nearly one-third, but results still fell short of analysts’ forecasts.

Shares fell 13% to $11.90 after hours. The stock has more than doubled in value the past year.

The company also forecast current-quarter earnings of 14 cents to 16 cents a share on revenue of $215 million to $225 million. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect 19 cents on $227 million.

TriQuint also said it sees full-year revenue up about 20%. Analysts had forecast an increase of 17% in revenue.

“With the world transitioning to a mobile Internet, I expect a strong market and see another solid growth year for TriQuint in 2011,” said President and Chief Executive Ralph Quinsey.

The maker of chips used in mobile communications devices participates in a mobile-devices market that has been rapidly expanding-and seeing high levels of competition-of late.

TriQuint reported a profit of $42.5 million, or 25 cents a share, up from $17.5 million, or 11 cents, a year earlier. The year-earlier quarter included 3 cents of net impacts such as stock-based compensation.

Revenue rose 31% to $253.4 million.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had most recently forecast earnings of 28 cents on $251 million in revenue.

Gross margin rose to 39% from 37.4%.

After reading the quick article from the Wall Street Journal you can see that TQNT is getting shellacked after a light quarter.  The question remains, is there business still intact?  Well, from a fundamental view I still have to do more work and read up on what has really changed but from I have read in the past I don’t see these earnings having any impact as to future 4G growth, but this is extremely raw and I have to take a closer look at the quarter and the companies remarks.

Technically there is solid support from $11.50 - $10 and if the name gives me any sign that it is  starting to hold I will start accumulating shares.   We bought a little on the release at $11.85 but nothing substantial as we take time to let the news digest and evaluate our original thesis.

I will give an update on the overall thesis over the next few days.