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Tag Archives: Hang Seng

Weakness in the Pre, Particularly in Asia

Morning Notes

- Looks like the leaked China CPI number from yesterday was spot on: +4.6%, in line with expectations
- China GDP and Industrial Production beat expectations
- China’s gov’t stressed that inflation would stay high, at least in first half of yr
- Rumors that PBOC may take action before Feb. 3 (Chinese New Year)
- All of the above weighed down Chinese stocks- Shanghai closed down nearly 3%
- Notable weakness across Asia: Hang Seng closed down 1.7% and Nikkei closed down 1.1%
- European markets trading slightly lower as well
- German PPI came in higher than expected, suggesting slight inflation
- Commodities lower in the o/n
- Initial Claims: 404K vs. 420K; prior revised down to 441K
- Continuing Claims: down 3.861M from 3.887M prior
- Remaining on the economic calendar for today: Existing Home Sales at 10a; Philly Fed at 10a
- S&P futures opening on no pivot signal, trades between S3 and R3 pivots

Solid Gains in the Pre to Kickstart 2011

Morning Notes

- Seeing nice strength in the premarket this morning
- China manufacturing PMI posted a decline m/m while non manufacturing PMI came in better m/m

Kickstart the New Year

- Shanghai Comp is closed today however so mkt reaction to comment on
- Nikkei is also closed
- Hang Seng is open and closed up 1.7%
- Eurozone manufacturing PMI came in better than expected
- German PMI came in lighter than expected
- Currencies and commodities markets seeing light volume- again, note that China, Japan, and the UK closed today
- Dollar is up small
- ISM Manufacturing and construction spending numbers out @ 10a ET
- S&P futures are up 10 handles from FV, trading above R4 pivot
- In corporate news, BAC agreed with Freddie and Fannie to resolve repurchase claims and the bank expects to take a $2B Q4 impairment charge for residential mtge loans sold by BAC affiliates directly to the GSEs; BAC is up 4.5% in the pre

Finally, Some Economic Data to Spice Up the Market!

Morning Notes
- Overseas mkts mixed in the overnight
- Asian mkts were mixed w/ Shanghai down 90bps and the Hang Seng up 20bps
- European mkts are flattish

Spice Up the Market!

- There were reports out that China may buy Portuguese sov debt (Dean has been talking about how there have been some great deals on sov debt for a few months now)
- China’s debt purchase may help assuage debt issues in Portugal (Portuguese bond yields pushed higher nonetheless today)
- This week has been extremely quiet, volumes- and new-wise
- There are at least a few items on the economic calendar for today to help provide a little bit of action
- Q3 GDP (third estimate): +2.6% vs. +2.8%; first revision: +2.5% from +2.0%
- Q3 GDP Deflator: 2.1% vs. 2.3%; first revision: 2.3% from 2.2%
- S&P still flattish after an initial pull back after GDP release
- Dollar seeing a little bit of pressure following GDP release
- Existing Homes Sales @ 10a ET
- S&P futures are up half a handle from FV and trading b/w S3 and R3

Light Volumes + No Pivot Signal Generated = Indecision

Morning Notes
- Light volumes in the overnight
- Hang Seng down the most, closed -1.3%, on concerns over monetary policy measures (Shanghai Comp down 50bps)

Indecision in the Market

- China and Hong Kong upgraded (Asian mkts were closed already when the announcement was made)
- German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in better than expected
- UK raised 2011 inflation forecast, as expected
- Commodities have been fairly quiet this morning
- FDX reported an earnings miss this morning, pulling in the futures as well
- S&P futures traded right up against R3 just before FDX earnings
- S&P futures not on a pivot signal this morning, trading between S3/R3
- Initial Jobless Claims: 420K vs. 425K; prior revised up to 423K from 421K
- Continuing Claims: 4.135M from 4.113M
- November Building Permits: 530K vs. 560K; m/m chg: -4.0%
- November Housing Starts: 555K vs. 545K; m/m chg: +3.9%
- Futures not reacting to data releases
- Philly Fed number out at 10a ET

Choppy Trade Before the Bell This Morning

Morning Notes
- Trading is mixed in overseas markets
- Interesting move in China- it announced it will change CPI data release to Saturday from Monday
- This move triggered speculation that rate hike will come soon, perhaps this weekend
- Hang Seng sold off 1.4% and the Shanghai closed down 95bps
- Nikkei, however, was up about 90bps, helped by a weaker yen
- German exports data came in weaker than expected
- Bank of France increase Q4 GDP outlook
- Dollar showing strength this morning
- Commodities are down a bit
- Nothing on the economic calendar for today (has been a quiet week so far for economic data releases)
- A couple of positive corporate news in the U.S., however: HD announced an improved outlook, raising FY11 guidance and COST reported solid earnings
- S&P futures are somewhat choppy this morning; currently up 1.5 handles from FV, trading on the S3 buy pivot signal

Markets Give Up Early Gains

Morning Notes

-       Ireland bailout package details finalized over the weekend (bailout for ~85B EUR, or $113B)

-       European markets down this morning; they have given up their early gains

-       Euro down as well

-       Focus still is on other nations with debt problems; yields on Spanish, Portuguese, Italian, and Hungarian sov debt have been rising

-       Nikkei was up, making five month highs in the o/n

-       Hang Seng up 1.26%

-       Tensions b/w N.Korea and S.Korea still in focus

-       Treasuries up (strength attributed to flight to safety play as European debt concerns still linger) along with the dollar

-       S&P futures down small, also giving up early gains like the European bourses have; on the R3 sell pivot signal in the pre

-       Retail stocks in focus today after the Black Friday weekend; most reports suggest positive outcome

-       Only item on economic calendar for today is the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity at 10:30a

Ireland Bailout News Provides Only Short Lived Relief

Morning Notes
- Ireland bailout was main catalyst in the o/n
- Bailout pkg estimated to be 95B EUR
- Now concerns are gathering around Portugal debt
- In Hong Kong, an increase of stamp duty on property added pressure to their market
- PBOC’s increase in bank reserve ratio was announced Friday after Asian mkts were closed so today’s action reflects that announcement
- Hence, Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp closed down small
- Nikkei, however, closed higher on yen weakness
- Futures have dropped significantly off its overnight highs as concerns are now directed at Portugal and Spain
- Euro also backed off its highs after spiking off Ireland news
- October Chicago Fed Manufacturing: -0.28; prior was -0.52
- S&P futures down about 6 handles from FV now trading right above the S4 pivot level
- Gold up a smidge; crude flat
- No other economic news on the calendar for today

Slight Rebound After Yesterday’s Sell Off in the Market

Morning Notes
- Overseas markets are mixed
- China down big again today as rate hike speculation continues; rumors that PBOC could make a rate decision on Friday
- Also, China’s State Council confirmed it will use price controls to help prevent rising inflation
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both down about 2%
- Nikkei, however, is up small
- European markets flat to up small
- More positive tone set in Europe as Irish Finance Minister to commence talks with IMF, EU, and ECB tomorrow to assess its financial situation
- There had been talks yesterday that Austria would withhold its contribution to the Greece bailout pkg because Greece did not adequately meet fiscal req.; however, more clarity on that today as Austrian Finance Minister said it was referring to the next tranche of the bailout pkg, which is being delayed by one month
- BOE minutes out today, no surprises there
- Dollar up small
- S&P futures up about 3.5 handles from FV, difficult to gauge direction as the action has been somewhat choppy, not on a pivot signal yet
- October CPI m/m: 0.2% vs. 0.3%; prior was 0.1%
- October CPI Ex Food & Energy: 0.0% vs. 0.1%; prior was 0.0%
- Housing Starts: 519K vs. 600K
- Building Permits: 550K vs. 570K
- S&P futures now ticking higher, up 5.75 handles from FV, approaching highs of the day

Market Recovers After Weak Performance Last Week

Morning Notes

- Overnight recap:
- Asian markets mixed
- Japan GDP came in better than expected, pushing the Nikkei up 1%
- Note: Japan GDP number may be a one off due to strength in yen over the last few months (which could slow growth in upcoming qtrs)
- PBOC did not make any interest rate decision over the weekend, as was speculated, helping boost the Shanghai Comp
- Shanghai Comp also saw an end of day rally, closing up nearly 1%
- Hang Seng is down, however, about 80bps
- European markets are up
- Crude, gold, dollar are up this AM
- S&P futures are up nearly 6 handles from FV, trading at highs of premarket session
- On economic calendar for today: Advance Retail Sales as well as Empire Manufacturing at 8:30a EST; Business Inventories at 10a
- M&A activity adding positive tone to the markets as CAT is to acquire BUCY for $7.6B (32% premium) and EMC to acquire ISLN for $2.25B (29% premium)
- October Retail Sales: +1.2% vs. 0.7%; prior revised up to +0.7% from +0.6%
- October Retail Sales Ex Auto: +0.4% vs. +0.3%; prior revised up to +0.5% from +0.4%
- Empire Manufacturing: -11.14 vs. 14

- Market pushing lower after data releases

Quiet Market Ahead of Largely Anticipated FOMC Decision Today

Morning Notes

-       First full trading day after Midterm Elections results have been revealed

-       Results: Republicans have majority in House; Dems continue to hold majority in Senate

-       Not too surprising in term of the election results

-       Overseas mkts up small

-       Most strength seen in Hang Seng in the o/n (+2.0%)

-       Dollar showing some weakness this morning

-       European mkts fairly quiet and trading flattish ahead of FOMC decision today at 2:15p

-       Major item on today’s agenda is the FOMC decision after which we’ll receive clarity around QE2 (separately, not expecting rate chg)

-       Expecting a lot of volatility post this 2:15p announcement

-       Also ahead today: ADUP Employment Chg at 8:15a; ISM Non Manufacturing Index at 10a; Factory Orrders at 10a

-       October ADP Employment Change: 43K vs. 20K; prior revised up to -2K from -39K

-       ADP figure is best one since May of this year

-       Futures not really reacting to ADP number

-       S&P futures had seen a lift last night, but has since pulled back; now up about 1 handle from FV