Category Archives: Economic Numbers

Earnings & Economic Events

Earnings for after close, 4/6/11: with Consensus

BBBY: 0.97

PBY: .05

RT: 0.31


Before open, 4/7/11: with Consensus

STZ: 0.26

GBX: -0.01

MOV: 0.01


Economic Events for 4/7/11: with Survey & Prior

8:30 Initial Jobless Claims: 385 K, 388 K

8:30 Continuing Claims: 3700 K, 3714 K

9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort: —, -46.9

3:00 Consumer Credit: $4.8B, $5.014B


Earnings & Economic Events 4.4.11 -

Earnings with Consensus
After close today:
SCHN: .85

Before open tomorrow, 4/5/11:
KB Home: -0.27

Economic Events: with survey & prior
10:00 ISM Non Manf. Composite: 59.5, 59.7

Come Join Our Live Broadcast Mon-Fri 8am-5pm At HedgeFundLive.Com Pick A Channel And Get Connected.

Earnings & Economic Events -


After the close today: with consensus

MED : .32

Economic Events for 4/1/11: with Survey & Prior

8:30 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: 190K, 192K

8:30 Change in Private Payrolls: 210 K, 222 K

8:30 Change in Manufact. Payrolls: 30K, 33K

8:30 Unemployment Rate: 8.9%, 8.9%

8:30 Avg Hourly Earning MOM All Emp: 0.2%, 0.0%

8:30 Avg Hourly Earning YOY All Emp: 1.9%, 1.7%

8:30 Avg Weekly Hours All Employees: 34.3, 34.2

10:00 Construction Spending MoM: -0.2%, -0.7%

10:00 ISM Manufacturing: 61, 61.4

10:00 ISM Prices Paid: 82.9, 82

5:00 Domestic Vehicle Sales: 10.12M, 10.22M

Come Join Our Live Broadcast Mon-Fri 8am-5pm At HedgeFundLive.Com Pick A Channel And Get Connected.

Notable Earnings for after close(3/30/11) and before open (3/31/11) -

After close today: with consensus number
DRYS:    .26
GMR:     -.36
MOS:    1.07
ES:          .22

Before open tomorrow(3/31/11): with consensus
KMX:  .38


LWSN:   .13

Economic Events for 3/31/11 with Survey & Prior

8:30 Initial Jobles Claims:  380K, 382K

8:30 Continuing Claims: 3705K, 3721 K

9:45 Chicago Purchasing Manager: 69.6, 71.2

9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort: —, -48.9

10:00 Annual Revisions: Wholesale Inventories

10:00 NAPM- Milwaukee: —, 63

10:00 Factory Orders: .5%, 3.1%



Housing Market   The housing market is not rebounding the way we hope it would. In February, housing starts showed the biggest decline in 27 years. Building permits showed there lowest levels on record. New construction dropped to 479,000 units, but economists were expecting a modest drop to 570,000 units. Some Macro Review, interest rates are at the lowest levels which is supposed to stimulate investment. However, are housing market is saying otherwise. There is too much inventory in the market for the housing market to expand. People can’t sell, most don’t have the money to buy, and foreclosures are piling up. It’s going be awhile until confidence is restored in the housing market. My opinion, if your looking to buy, move down to Southern Central Jersey or North Carolina and save on your taxes.


The Way We Were: One Year Ago on March 5, 2010 — Let’s rewind back to exactly one year ago on March 4, 2010 and see what our Chief Market Strategist Jeremy Klein had to say on that day:

(“Re”) Introducing the Quick and Dirty

After four days of boredom that goes well beyond anything the sport of curling can offer, we finally arrive at the Big One. Regardless of what number flashes across our screens at 8:30 AM, the market will move in a major way such that the S&P 500 futures will most likely break out of this week’s soporific range of 1115 to 1125. Beyond the typical high interest a Jobs Reports brings, two things make today’s data more intriguing than usual. First, except for the report received this past December, every Nonfarm Payrolls released in the past two years has reflected negative job growth. Last month’s -20K print, however, brought us close to the happy side of par suggesting the employment picture continues to firm up providing further evidence that the economic recovery still remains on track. Any backing off from job creation given the environment of the recent poor data, especially from the Department of Labor’s release of Jobless Claims, will make many people more nervous that the recovery is not a done deal and the economy sits halfway through a double dip recession.

Weak Nonfarm Payrolls Numbers Had Been Expected in March 2010 Due to Snowstorm

Next, as evidenced by blogs, such as this one by Floyd Norris of The New York Times (, research reports, and the talking heads on CNBC, we hear whispers of a miserable report thanks to the giant snowstorm which hit the Atlantic Seaboard on February 9-10. Nonfarm Payrolls are compiled from the week which contains the 12th day of the month, such that many economists fear the weather forced employees to stay at home to therefore be undercounted in the establishment survey. Some, including Mr. Norris, point to a sequence of releases during the winter of 1996 as proof. January’s survey from that year coincided with another Northeast blizzard which caused a significant, counter trend drop of 206K jobs only to get an eye popping 705K rebound the following month. While the data revisions eventually smoothed out somewhat to lessen the effect over the course of that year, economists are now taking notice, for despite a decent ADP report on Wednesday, consensus for Nonfarm Payrolls has slipped in the past 3 days from -20K to -68K. For completeness, ADP did produce a -20K estimate while my world famous Quick and Dirty model, which I base on Initial Jobless Claims numbers and not Al Roker, predicts -110K.

Although my own biased opinion would tell you that my back of the envelope estimate of Nonfarm Payrolls outshines the rest of the Street as well as ADP’s hard data, I actually have no idea how it stacks up. More important than crowning the grand prognostication champion, however, is predicting market reaction based on the number. Given the pervasive fears brought by Frosty the Snowman, I believe stocks will ultimately welcome any print better than a drop of 100K payrolls. Anything worse will most likely produce sustained negative pressure, at least initially, although it will be muted because of the general consensus that the miss is a mere statistical oddity that will be corrected on the release of April’s numbers which will occur on Good Friday when the U.S. financial markets are closed. If we get lucky and the BLS gifts us a better than expected report, look for a solidly constructive day for stocks to provide additional oomph for the inevitable push to a fresh yearly high.

S&P 500 E-Minis Key Technical Levels
Support: 1122.25, 1115.50/15.00, 1111.50, 1107, 1096.25/95.00, 1090.00, 1084.50, 1079.50
Resistance: 1130.00, 1135.00, 1138.50, 1147.00, 1150.00, 1160.50



More Positive Economic Data

While watching the market today I was interested by the fact that the market initially hesitated to rally behind the extremely positive jobs data. It took time for investors to shake off the bearish feelings that existed over the night and early this morning.  It will be interesting to see the BLS numbers on Friday. More positive numbers on Friday may extend this rally even further and leave investors wondering when or even if there will be a significant market adjustment in the near future. However, we will first have to see how the market behaves tommorow.

Economic Calendar for the Week of 11-29-2010

· Monday, November 29th: US (Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity)

· Tuesday, November 30th: US (S&P CaseShiller Home Price Index, Chicago Purchasing Managed, Consumer Confidence, ABC Consumer Confidence); EuroZone (EuroZone Unemployment, German Unemployment Change)

· Wednesday, December 1st: US (MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment, Nonfarm Productivity, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid, Construction Spending, Domestic & Total Vehicle Sales, Fed’s Beige Book); EuroZone (EuroZone PMI Manufacturing, GMP – PMI Manufacturing) Other (CNY – PMI Manufacturing)

· Thursday, December 2nd: US (Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales); EuroZone (EuroZone GDP s.a, EuroZone PPI, ECB Announces Interest Rates)

· Friday, December 3rd: US (Average Weekly Hours, Average Hourly Earnings, Change in Private & Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, ISM Non Manufacturing Composite, Factory Order); EuroZone (EuroZone Retail Sales, German Retail Sales)

Technology/Telecom Recap: 10/7/10

A better than expected jobless claims number rallied us to new highs in this current range during the pre-market trade.  As the market opened and more players started to place their bets the market was pushed lower, until breaking a couple of handles below S4.  Although the pivots were tight this was still a drastic move and buyers eventually stepped and rallied us back to unched.  The market then pulled back a couple of handles as the market prepared for earnings season and payroll numbers tomorrow morning.

As far as tech is concerned the cloud/virtualization names came out of the gate extremely volatile as expected.  EQIX which was hammered for 33% the day prior after taking down guidance was strong up 2%.  While, they were buying EQIX on the weakness they were selling CTXS all the way down to the 58 level which held as nice support.  VMW, RHT, FFIV, and RAX all were sold off the open, but eventually caught a bid and were able to close off the lows.  The bid support in these names was most likely due to short covering, but, there is also the underlying them of takeouts which all names are possible targets, especially CTXS who has been rumored to be taken out by MSFT for over three years.

The hardware names, AAPL, DELL, HPQ, and IBM all had relatively quiet days closing up roughly 1% across the board.  The SMH inched up today as WFR closed the day up 3%.  MU, MRVL, LLTC, XLNX, and KLAC all rallied today as MU reported after the bell.  MU’s headline number was light and the stock is trading down 1% percent after hours.  MU’s earnings are usually subject to interpretation, so keep a close eye on the stock tomorrow the last report was not taken well.

There continues to be a lot of takeout speculation in the software space as BMC traded up 7% after BBG and others said it was exploring a sale.  ADBE also rallied late this afternoon following a report from the New York Times stating that Ballmer and his entourage has been meeting with Adobe management, possibly discussing a deal.  Speculation is that it’s time for MSFT to make a deal and the Adobe deal is rumored to cost MSFT 15 - 17 billion.

Top Performers: ADBE, BMC, WFR, MU, INTU, AKAM, WDC

Worst Performers: YHOO, QLGC, JBL, V, GOOG, GLW, NVDA, JDSU

Indecision In The Market Will Resolve Itself

Indecision, Indecision. Ironically it take but a few people to break us out of an indecision trading range. It is not that the few individuals are so powerful that they can move markets; it is that the rest of us are so complacent. We are literally waiting around for the few individual to tell us the market is moving higher or this will be a failed third test of crucial levels in the S & P.  It will take one buyer than the next and the floodgates open. First the shorts get squeezed. Then sidelined conservative institutional money feels they can dip their toes in the water, as they begin to believe that the worst is behind them. This gap in the market is followed by retail chasing stocks as the fear of missing the rally forces them to invest. As the Market moves up, economic numbers improve, becoming a self fulfilling prophecy and taking the market to my prediction of a 1250 area for the close of the year on the S&P cash. I would expect an extended pause at this level as it will take some time for the country on a whole to believe we have turned a corner, but the returns on their 401Ks and IRAs will go a long way toward believing.