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And Oils Going Up…

Due to the disruptions of crude operations in Libya oil prices have only continued to climb and stocks drifted lower. In a statement made by the Italian company Eni, natural gas supplies from Libya via the Greenstream pipeline have been suspended, but fortunately, still able to meet customer demand.

Fighting in Libya raises the prospect of turmoil spreading into the Middle East and North Africa and has weighed down global financial markets. Now, fighting has reached the northwest of the Libyan country with only Qaddafi having a tight grip on the capital, Tripoli.

Michael Jackson, who?

Most of the large areas of the east, where much of Libya’s oil producing and port operations take place, have lost political control. This has helped to drive oil prices to a two year high where it is noted by Barclays Capital that an estimated 1 million barrels a day of production have been shut in ( more than half the country’s total).

Many oil companies have stopped their production in Libya. The British giant, BP, stated they were even evacuating workers. Similar to BP, ENI, Repsol of Spain, Total of France, Statoil of Norway, and BASF, the German chemical and energy company have stopped production and moved workers out of the country.

Saudi Arabia has made many efforts to calm down the market. They have said that OPEC is ready to compensate for any shortfalls due to unrest in Libya. The country produces about 2% of global daily output. Tuesday, Libya declared “force majeure on all oil-product exports, meaning it could miss contractual obligations because of circumstances beyond its control.” This is not a good sign and the rising crude prices definitely stunt the progress toward a global economic recovery…

Top Ten Yiddish Phrases and How they can Work for You!

10. Shmutz - Meaning a little bit of dirt, not a serious mess.  Be sure you wipe the shmutz off your face before you leave the house.

9. Schmuck - A word used to refer to a fool or imbecile.  Be careful not to use this word too often or you will begin to sound like one.

8. Shikse - The word shikse is commonly used in a derogatory fashion to refer to a non-Jewish woman who is seducing a Jewish man.  Sent: “Can you believe Michael is dating a shikse!  I was certain he was going to marry Chaim Rosenthal’s daughter.”

7. Yente - A busybody.  Chances are if you live in New York City you know more than one.

5. Mazel Tov - A congratulatory phrase; while surely appropriate at any Bar Mitzvah or wedding, Mazel Tov can also be used with great ironic effectiveness.  For example, “You managed not to urinate on the seat…Mazel Tov.”

4. Gai kaken oifen yam! - This one could really get you in trouble at Hebrew School

3. Goy - A non-Jew.  See Dean Machado

2. Chutzpah - Nerve, gall.  Sent: “Could you believe that dress she was wearing to Shul.  What Chutzpah!”

1. Oy Vey - Literally meaning “Oh, woe” this phrase deserves the top spot because of its versatility.  Use it during a trade, use it at a party…however you use it, it’s sure to be a hit with Jew and Gentile alike.

Controlling Your Emotions

Character isn’t inherited. One builds it daily by the way one thinks and acts, thought by thought, action by action. If one lets fear or hate or anger take possession of the mind, they become self-forged chains. - Helen Douglas

Controlling Your Emotions


Be Patient. Stay Focused. We’ve all heard this before. But what does that have to do with trading?

Watch this Video as JeremyFrommer teaches about the importance of Controlling your Emotions and the effects it can have on your trading abilities.


Technically And Figuratively Speaking

Technically, the S&P is overbought based on RSI and Stochastics.

Figuratively, nobody gives a damn.

For reasons I can’t explain, I want to short this market with every fiber of my being.  And I do early on every day, until around 3pm.  Then I buy futures and cover some of my shorts.  I also sprinkle in a few long oil names like HAL or XOM.  And every day that trades pays off.  I don’t know why, and I don’t care.  I ask Dean, my partner and PM, as well as every trader on our desk the same thing each day.  Why shouldn’t I make this trade?  Has the market done anything differently in the last 2 weeks?  The answer is in the positive P&L during that period. 

I have not made any substantial money during these last 2 weeks.  It took me a while to figure out just how little this market cares about being overbought.  It took me a while to take the path of least resistance.  Its never too late to make the right trade.


A WINNER says, “Lets find out”,
A LOSER says, “Nobody knows”

When a WINNER makes a mistake, he/she says, “I was wrong”
When a LOSER makes a mistake, he/she says, ” It wasn’t my fault”

A WINNER credits his/her “good luck” for winning (even though it isn’t good luck)
A LOSER blames his/her “bad luck” for losing (even though it isn’t bad luck)

A WINNER works harder than a loser and has more time.
A LOSER is always “too busy” to do what is necessary.

A WINNER makes commitments.
A LOSER makes promises.

A WINNER says, “I’m good, but not as good as I ought to be”
A LOSER says “I’m not as bad as a lot of other people”



Putting the Math in Your Favor

Sometimes, math can be fun

Ahhh the sweet smell of success. Today I finished the session with a P&L of $380, my best performance in weeks. Lately, my trading has been characterized by excessive losses, heartbreaking whipsaws, and general lack of discipline. I made a promise to myself to change my wily ways and get back on the path to righteousness. In order to do so, I first had to identify the factors that were contributing to my demise. Looking back over my scorecards, I noticed a disturbing pattern; my losses had become humongous while my gains remained minuscule. I bore the scarlet letter; the whole town knew I was nothing but a dirty, no-good amateur. From a psychological perspective, it is easy to understand why this hallmark plagues so many traders. When a position moves in an unfavorable direction, many traders tend to add into the trade believing a reversal looms on the horizon. When the ever expanding position continues to trend, the pain eventually becomes too great to bear and the trader pukes. Conversely, when a trader begins to make money on a position, the natural inclination is to book profits for fear that the stock will reverse its course. This mindset creates a portfolio full of robust losing positions and meager winners.

Recognizing the perils of this traders’ paradox I sought shelter from its relentless clutches. I recalled a guiding principle I learned in my very first week at Hedge Fund Live; putting the math in your favor is the only assured way to consistently make money. In order to accomplish these ends, one must constantly control his or her reward to risk ratio by only risking a fraction of what one is willing to make on any particular trade. The most effective way to control one’s risk to reward ratio is to control one’s share sizing. If I noticed a losing position was larger than other winning positions, I immediately took down risk. Furthermore, I allowed my winning trades to run in my favor for longer than I normally would. Using this strategy I was able to finish the day with a pad of 6 winners and 1 loser with my largest winner coming in at $140 and my only loser costing me ($2).

astro view-2/16 preview

i want to put out a view that might be helpful for overnite entrys… although its my opinion that the market was very sluggish today(2/15) at elevated overbought levels an objective examination of weds(2/16) sp forecast suggest continued bullishness. in my am presentation i will explain and visually demonstrate what the term cluster means. please join us


The Mosaic Company is a Delaware corporation that was incorporated in January 2004. The Company is a producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients for the global agriculture industry. Through its broad product offering, it is a single source supplier of phosphate- and potash-based crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients. It serves customers in more than 40 countries… Earlier in the year, Jeffrey Tynik traded this company and felt after that he should have made some other choices while executing.

Check out this MOS Socratic Trade Review made by Hedge Fund LIVE Trader Jeffrey Tynik, and learn how he handled a trade in M

OS over 12 months ago.


Starman’s Synopsis

The man, the myth, the legend — Jack Shuman. He brings a different aspect to our company that many companies are missing. He matches astrological signs and planets in the sky to correlate volatility and changes in the market. As a believer in horoscopes, I gave Jack a chance with his market predictions and now live by his advice. This morning, he introduced his price matrix and trading a hyperbole. Be sure to check him out!!


Tynik’s Two Cents

Jeffrey Tynik, on and off the trading desk, always gives his opinion on what is going on. In his daily morning broadcast, Jeff gives insight on the latest technological news in the market. Lots of major action stems from this type of information and can make you lots of money. This morning, Jeff looks for strength in TSM as AAPL touches ties with Samsung. If you want up to date information about technology; make sure you check out this Vlog each morning.