Trading, Stock Market and Wall Street = writers block
I have had writers block for nearly a week. I had decided that my first Blog in the New Year would not be a traditional New Years Resolution blog; I could not find a single thing that I want to resolve. I did not want to put some silly list of humorous resolutions, such as I ”I resolve to not mix my Meds”. I didn’t want to put a list together of common everyday resolutions such as “I will try having
more date nights”. ……….With my wife or Marc Schwartz.
So………After hours of meditation…………………
I have a single New Years resolution, I am resolved to live each day in the present. I expect to experience 365 unique days. Too many of my mistakes from the last year were because I believed I could control tomorrow. More importantly, they were because I arrogantly believed I had a clue as to what tomorrow had in store. Now before you stop reading, because you think this will be some self-reflective sappy shit blog, think about how this applies to your investing and your trading. For 6 months I have been bullish. I called for a 1275 2010 year end close on the S&P cash; I was off by about 25 points and one day, as we hit my level January 1st. And while I continue to be Bullish on the overall market as well as optimistic about the direction the world is going, none of that has anything to do with tomorrow’s trade.
Willian daley - Obama's New Year's Resolution
One of the most important objectives in this game, is to stay objective. Last year I was not objective. Objectivity is reality. My perception may be very different than the market, but it is the market’s view that is reality. I may believe a loss I have may turn into a gain, but reality is, it may not, and I must adhere to my risk limits. I can have an educated opinion, but only time will tell if it is reality. Truth be told, there is no such thing as an objective opinion, It is an oxymoron, moron. When you make an investment with a time horizon, what exactly does that mean? Who is to say one earning’s multiple is too high and another too low. Why did so many believe the euro was going to parity? Why did our market spend so much time in 2010 worrying about Europe? The sky did not fall. CDS spreads continue to fluctuate. The Dow is 17% off its all time high. That is just a few Flash Dashes away from a new high. And what about that Flash Crash thing? How can any trader believe they have an idea of what tomorrow holds in store when the concept of a flash crash exists? Every currency impacts the bond market, which impacts the equity markets, which impact the masses of IRAs 401ks and pensions, which impact all of you, which impacts the politicians. And what about the politicians? How can any trader be comfortable with “tomorrow”, when the president thinks he can change the rules on a daily basis? No more proprietary trading. No more shorting? Oh, just not in the shitty stocks. And what about
Shit, Shit, Shit, and Goldman Sachs
the word shitty? During the senate hearings villainizing Goldman Sachs, Senator Levin referred to Goldman as “Shitty, Shitty, Shitty”. Maybe he doesn’t realize that some of us like to watch C-span with our kids. And what about C-Span and the 1,000 other channels, Internet, and numerous other media outlets? We are bombarded with information. None of us can actually decipher it. The technology changes so rapidly that it is impossible to know which one will be in business tommorow. One year ago, I thought “THE CLOUD” was where God lived. And what about God, is he out there? You know what? I wont go there. I wrote in an early 2010 blog that I thought the market had systemicly changed. I was wrong. The market never changes, only the players change. I am a changed man. Shit, that really sounds cliché. For many years I believed people couldn’t fundamentally change. My one new year’s resolution is to fundamentally change. Yes, I now believe that a person, given the right discipline and enlightenment can change fundamentally. My new year’s resolution will
Cloud Technology - Where is God
manifest itself in both parts of my life. The only two parts a real Wall-Streeter has, family and business. And for many a Wall-Streeter the line is particularly blurry. I expect to see every day with my family as both a blessing and a testament to all that I have accomplished. I expect to live every day of the business as a new challenge in the game, a new scene in an unseen movie or a new chapter in an unread book. I guess I am going cliché. Very sappy, I apologize. But I believe that the player has changed. I can no longer rely on skills honed during bygone years. It is time to embrace a new style of living and a new strategy in the game. Day by day. Moment to moment. As we survive, we grow stronger. As we embrace the moment, we secure the future. I can no longer waste a day thinking about tomorrow. I need to end the day thinking about all that I accomplished. I need to see a day as a building block for the future. I need to see the trade in the moment and the business as it is today. Maybe a time will come when the future can be planned, but that is not today and more importantly it is not tomorrow. Play the game like you are in the midst of the battle and then hopefully the war may ultimately be won. I once believed trading was a long-term strategy. I now understand it is a series of short-term battles in an ongoing war. I once believed a business was methodically built over an extended period of time. I now understand that business is “ten percent luck, twenty percent skill, fifteen percent concentrated power of will. Five percent pleasure, fifty percent pain and a hundred percent reason to remember my name”. (Fort Minor – Remember the Name) I now understand that I am in control of neither but capable of succeeding at both. My new years resolution is simple, I will truly embrace the moment, I will let go, and I will fundamentally change.
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