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Tag Archives: Egypt

Facebook (and I guess Google) Should Finish What They Started in the Middle East


Are Google and Facebook more responsible for Egypt and Tunisia?

Shimon Peres, Israel’s current President, is for all intents and purposes, to me, a Gever; a term that can be loosely defined as the Modern Hebrew language equivalent of Dude.  The man has seen some stuff.  He joined the Haganah alongside other founding fathers of the Israeli state and played an integral role in securing arms for Israel’s independence war in 1948.  Throughout his political career he has served as Transportation Minister, Defense Minister, Foreign Minister, and Prime Minister.  On the first of a 4-day visit to Spain, Peres spoke to Spanish Parliament.  In his speech he addressed the unrest in Egypt and Libya that continues to spread across the Middle East region.  He mentioned that he sees these uprisings as “opportunities for peace”, and said that “we believe the biggest guarantee of peace is having democratic neighbors…”.

What I found most interesting was Peres’s message to large technology companies.  He alluded to the fact that these companies, e.g. Facebook, Google, Microsoft, have hefty coffers full of cash ready to be deployed.  Peres noted that “these companies have the means and they can help…aid is currently directed mainly at sick people in poorer countries, [but] it’s better to cure the state and let it treat its own ills.”  In the realistic department these comments probably come in at about a 4 on a scale of 1 to 10, but in the idealistic department they’re more like a 9.  Imagine if for-profit companies actually spent their hard-earned money on foreign aid the way leading governments of the world do.  Back when Google IPO’d they made a big hullabaloo about their “Do No Evil” motto – they wanted to ensure that everyone got a fair chance to participate in their stock offering and presumably a fair chance in life as well.  The Founders of Facebook probably feel similarly.  I’m not sure what their motto is, but it’s probably something that evokes thoughts of democracy.  So do these technology giants have a responsibility to the people who use their services?  If Facebook enables a dictator’s demise, should they participate in the process of establishing a fair successor?  These are big questions, but I do like where Shimon Peres was going.  Every once in a while the world needs to be reminded that there is a fairly successful Middle Eastern democracy situated in the middle of all this turmoil; it’s called Israel.



Steve Jobs is no Moammar Gaddafi


Steve Jobs does not equal Moammar Gaddafi

In between news of riots in Libya, Gaddafi saying he will die a martyr, rallies in Wisconsin, Idaho and Indiana, and general apocalyptic signals, Apple (AAPL) made some news of its own.  This morning started with FBR Capital analyst, Craig Berger, telling investors that the iPhone 5 may be delayed after channel checks indicate bottlenecks at casing and touch suppliers.  Berger suggested that the iPhone5 may now ship in September which throws off Apple’s usual mid-summer new product reveal.  The note went on to temper this news by saying that iPhone production for this calendar would be “much stronger” than expected, coming in at 100 million units.  The white iPhone and availability of the phone on Verizon Wireless are notable factors in these better-than-expected numbers.  Berger also quoted an anonymous source that told him internal iPad sales targets at Apple are more like 45 million for this year than a prior expectation of 38 million.  So overall I would say that Berger’s note is bullish for Apple – iPhone5 may be late, but demand for the iPhone and iPad seem to be nothing if not healthy.  Nonetheless, AAPL stock began the day down and ended the day on its lows, down about 3.4%.  Sure the market was down, but it probably didn’t help that a video of Steve Jobs looking gaunt (to say the least) after some chemo started circling the web.  In these times where US citizens and Middle East citizens are so adamantly opposing their leaders I have to give Steve Jobs some credit – not only is he not being overthrown, his shareholders are upset by the prospect of him leaving.  Nice job Steve!



6 Reactions to Qaddaffi and Current Libyan events


As our office sat and listened to Gadaffi’s live speech on the CNN LIVE channel today, it was pointed out that stations such as Bloomberg and CNBC (who are usually very current with Breaking News) were not reporting on it. Why?

Muammar Gaddafi

It seems as if technology, entertainment and pop-culture take some precedence over non-US events relating directly or indirectly to the stock market, nowadays. And with no help from media and news stations, which are responsible for driving a lot of American thoughts, people - especially young adults- may not realize the importance of World Events such as this until it is too late.

Below are my 6 interpretations of the average American’s reaction to the recent Quadaffi/Libyan events:

  1. Uhhh…Ka-Daf-fi?…Didn’t he shut down access to Facebook and Twitter in Egypt? I thought he’s already agreed to step down from office in September?
  2. I want to follow the news, but wish I knew the proper spelling of Gaddaffi’s name to type into Goggle search on my iPad. Is it Khaddafy, Qadaffi, or Gadhafi….?? How important can he really be if reporters don’t spell his name right? By the way, do you think he knows when the iPad 2 is coming out?
  3. My favorite basketball player, Carmelo Anthony, just got signed by the Knicks, for God’s sake! Why should I care about some damn foreign Tyrant!
  4. Justin Beiber’s new haircut and pop-culture is far more important than world events. Did you hear about how he surprised his girlfriend by filling her entire apartment with fresh flowers? It wasn’t even done as an apology for something he’d done wrong or a gift for Valentine’s day! Isn’t he sweet! Where’s my remote? I think I DVR’ed the Grammy’s.
  5. You want MY thoughts on the Italian Stock Exchange closing today and Rising Oil Prices?!?!..Who cares?..I’m NOT Italian! I’m not going to Italy any time soon! AND I drive a HYBRID…that’ll show all you suckers!

    Justin Bieber Cuts His Famous Hair

  6. As though we don’t have enough going on in this country, now we have to focus on more negative news in outside countries?!?!…Where’s Justin Beiber when you need him?


READ: Market Watch from Hedge Fund Live Tuesday 2/22/2011-The Internet Is Mightier Than The Sword


“The Internet is not just a funnel to the world’s database, but it the driving force behind the next evolution of mankind.” -Jeremy Frommer:


BLOG WRITTEN BY JEREMY FROMMER 2-21-11:

I am blown away by the power of the Internet. I do not believe I ever quite understood it until this weekend. I have been glued to Google’s real-time twitter and news feeds of events unfolding on the ground in Libya. There are no reporters, not a single news station

Delusional

has been able to deliver reliable information. The Internet is not just a funnel to the world’s database, but it the driving force behind the next evolution of mankind. It is a weapon, one that we have never seen wielded with such precision as we have these past few weeks. “The pen is mightier than the sword” is a metonymic adage coined by English author Edward Bulwer-Lytton in 1839 for his play Richelieu; Or the Conspiracy.

“True, This! —

Beneath the rule of men entirely great,

The pen is mightier than the sword. Behold

The arch-enchanters wand! — Itself a nothing! —

But-taking sorcery from the master-hand

To paralyze the Cæsars, and to strike

The loud earth breathless! — Take away the sword

—
States can be saved without it!

But it is the Internet that has fulfilled this prophecy. The pen has become a metaphor for the power of communication.

Very delusional

The sword empowered one man over another. The pen empowered single men over the masses.  The Internet has empowered us all. No voice unheard. This is evolution. Blood is being spilled this weekend in the name of evolution as much as revolution. Revolution will bring temporary change. New leaders will come and go. But the idea of change, the method by which change occurs has now evolved forever. The sword has proven worthless as dictatorships fall despite there overwhelming military power. They cannot turn to their generals who look to their own children’s eyes and wonder about the future. They turn off the one last hope of their people, the Internet. But to the people, the Internet is no longer a privilege. It is a human right. I breathe, I eat, I twitter. Knowledge is synonymous with Google. To socialize is to Face book, and to communicate is to email. Our language is evolving, our very nature has changed forever. CNBC with a lack of real coverage in Libya has started reporting on tweets. I just heard them post their viewers on a tweet asking about Apache helicopters circling protesters.

Very, very, delusional

So what does this mean for the financial markets? Clearly in the long run, this evolutionary period will be remembered as one of the most important periods of the century. In the same way the decades after World War 2 reshaped the human condition. But we are in a vacuum of information. The Internet is the Nuclear weapon of our generation. We do not truly know how it will affect the world in the short term. What impact the rapid change will bring. I do not mean to compare the two on an actionable level. Clearly a nuclear blast is not the same thing as an Internet blast. But rather let us analyze it from an existential standpoint. The mere existence of the nuclear bomb, though never used, has altered the powers structure of the world. Harry Truman said, “The atom bomb was no “great decision.” It was merely another powerful weapon in the arsenal of righteousness. The Internet’s power, as a catalyst for change has barely been discovered. Obama may owe his presidential seat to the force of the Internet. The Egyptians owe their freedom to it. When the Israelites escaped the tyranny of the pharaoh in Egypt they required a miracle from G-d. Then again, no one has ever been able to tell me exactly who created the Internet. It turned out not to be Al Gore. Though he probably wouldn’t mind the comparison. Perhaps the mere existence of a phenomenon that can topple governments in weeks is a miracle. Perhaps it is more powerful than a nuclear bomb. And perhaps it will take a long time to digest what impact this newfound power will have on the world, let alone the financial markets.

Short term, I believe the stock market will retrace some of its aggressive gains of the last month. Perhaps the S&P will even retest the 1300 level to determine the commitment of the buyers in the most recent Bull Run as the world has so rapidly changed around them, without even the slightest of pullbacks. Oil, as I predicted just keeps going higher, and why not? The Middle East is in turmoil. There is a very real probability that it spreads to Saudi Arabia. The effects of regime change in other oil producing Arab countries, on all commodity prices let alone oil, would be unprecedented. Gold would sky rocket, as the possibility that political revolt could spread to Latin America or even china, would rattle world currency markets. The Bull who plays down these possibilities argues that these other countries have the wealth to control the political challenges. They can pay for peace. Mubarak alone had 70 billion tucked away. Imagine what the rest of his regime has hidden throughout the complex web of interconnected global banks. Could he have paid for peace too? The Bull Run, for the S&P that began in Jan of 09 is over for now. It will take real clarity and an understanding of the future impact on countries yet affected, before the market can resume its unfettered run. Global corporations can no longer asses the value of the deals they cut with dictators, tyrants and princes. Eventually the Libyan crisis will end. Many will die. Questions of how a new Libya and Egypt fit into the geopolitical landscape will pail by comparison to the debates over the future of Iran and China. Worse will be the affect on the world political scene, of the M.A.S.S., the Minimizing of America’s Superpower Status. The silence from the U.S. administration can no longer be tolerated. Israel stands more alone today in the Middle East, than perhaps at any other time in its history. If the West does not take an active role in the geopolitical changes, there is a chance that all the gains we have made in the war on terror could be lost.

While we have just finished corporate earrings’ season and economic numbers while not powerful indicators have shown a steady

Disguised for Escape

recovery. It is the kind of recovery that can be thrown rapidly off course by sky rocketing oil prices. I have been raising a red flag on inflation for some time. The event overseas will accelerate this process. We stand on the verge of government shutdowns and municipality insolvencies. Pouring more leveraged money into this market is foolhardy. There is only one logical trade for Tuesday. Take risk off the table, and short the market if you have free hands. I am reasonably short. While I am looking for a pull back, I will use any bounce in the market as an opportunity to further short the market. I believe we are at a significantly overbought level, ignorant of the realities that have been swirling around us.



Mid-East unrest infiltrates Daytona 500


Libya & the Daytona 500

For those of you who own a car, the day of reckoning has arrived.  Riots characteristic of Tunisia, Egypt and Bahrain have finally spread to OPEC member country, Libya.  Moammar Gaddafi (I defer to the Jerusalem Post’s spelling of his name), temporary resident of Englewood, NJ, is getting a taste of “Uncle Sam’s cough medicine”, otherwise known as Democracy.  As an ardent supporter of Israel it is hard for me to look past the potential effects the Middle East unrest will have on the Jewish homeland, but this is a very exciting time in world history and there are a myriad of lessons to be learned.

The first lesson is: if you’re a totalitarian ruler, check yourself before you wreck yourself.  The second lesson, however, played itself out in the Daytona 500 this past weekend: you can’t suppress the youth.  At the Daytona 500 it was Trevor Bayne, the youngest driver ever to win the Great American Race.  In a year where Daytona experienced a major face-lift the pundits predicted that it would take veteran skills to navigate the new track, but it ended up being a 20 year-old’s quiet determination that pulled it out.  Now I don’t think that NASCAR’s “old guard” has denied the youth of their sport of basic rights, but the right mix of factors combined to produce a proverbial pressure cooker that led to an uprising in the car-racing world.  The recent events in the Middle East are not completely dissimilar.  After years of being marginalized it is the youth of the despotic regimes that now have the world’s eyes upon them.  And just like Trevor Bayne they have all the momentum in their favor.  The question remains: what will they do next?

I noticed an ESPN poll question that put it perfectly - Is this a new era, or just a flash in the pan?



Market Watch from Hedge Fund Live Tuesday 2/22/2011-The Internet Is Mightier Than The Sword


I am blown away by the power of the Internet. I do not believe I ever quite understood it until this weekend. I have been

Delusional

glued to Google’s real-time twitter and news feeds of events unfolding on the ground in Libya. There are no reporters, not a single news station has been able to deliver reliable information. The Internet is not just a funnel to the world’s database, but it the driving force behind the next evolution of mankind. It is a weapon, one that we have never seen wielded with such precision as we have these past few weeks. “The pen is mightier than the sword” is a metonymic adage coined by English author Edward Bulwer-Lytton in 1839 for his play Richelieu; Or the Conspiracy.

“True, This! —

Beneath the rule of men entirely great,

The pen is mightier than the sword. Behold

The arch-enchanters wand! — Itself a nothing! —

But-taking sorcery from the master-hand

To paralyze the Cæsars, and to strike

The loud earth breathless! — Take away the sword

—
States can be saved without it!

But it is the Internet that has fulfilled this prophecy. The pen has become a metaphor for the power of communication.

Very delusional

The sword empowered one man over another. The pen empowered single men over the masses.  The Internet has empowered us all. No voice unheard. This is evolution. Blood is being spilled this weekend in the name of evolution as much as revolution. Revolution will bring temporary change. New leaders will come and go. But the idea of change, the method by which change occurs has now evolved forever. The sword has proven worthless as dictatorships fall despite there overwhelming military power. They cannot turn to their generals who look to their own children’s eyes and wonder about the future. They turn off the one last hope of their people, the Internet. But to the people, the Internet is no longer a privilege. It is a human right. I breathe, I eat, I twitter. Knowledge is synonymous with Google. To socialize is to Face book, and to communicate is to email. Our language is evolving, our very nature has changed forever. CNBC with a lack of real coverage in Libya has started reporting on tweets. I just heard them post their viewers on a tweet asking about Apache helicopters circling protestors.

Very, very, delusional

So what does this mean for the financial markets? Clearly in the long run, this evolutionary period will be remembered as one of the most important periods of the century. In the same way the decades after World War 2 reshaped the human condition. But we are in a vacuum of information. The Internet is the Nuclear weapon of our generation. We do not truly know how it will affect the world in the short term. What impact the rapid change will bring. I do not mean to compare the two on an actionable level. Clearly a nuclear blast is not the same thing as an Internet blast. But rather let us analyze it from an existential standpoint. The mere existence of the nuclear bomb, though never used, has altered the powers structure of the world. Harry Truman said, “The atom bomb was no “great decision.” It was merely another powerful weapon in the arsenal of righteousness. The Internet’s power, as a catalyst for change has barely been discovered. Obama may owe his presidential seat to the force of the Internet. The Egyptians owe their freedom to it. When the Israelites escaped the tyranny of the pharaoh in Egypt they required a miracle from G-d. Then again, no one has ever been able to tell me exactly who created the Internet. It turned out not to be Al Gore. Though he probably wouldn’t mind the comparison. Perhaps the mere existence of a phenomenon that can topple governments in weeks is a miracle. Perhaps it is more powerful than a nuclear bomb. And perhaps it will take a long time to digest what impact this newfound power will have on the world, let alone the financial markets.

Short term, I believe the stock market will retrace some of its aggressive gains of the last month. Perhaps the S&P will even retest the 1300 level to determine the commitment of the buyers in the most recent Bull Run as the world has so rapidly changed around them, without even the slightest of pullbacks. Oil, as I predicted just keeps going higher, and why not? The Middle East is in turmoil. There is a very real probability that it spreads to Saudi Arabia. The effects of regime change in other oil producing Arab countries, on all commodity prices let alone oil, would be unprecedented. Gold would sky rocket, as the possibility that political revolt could spread to Latin America or even china, would rattle world currency markets. The Bull who plays down these possibilities argues that these other countries have the wealth to control the political challenges. They can pay for peace. Mubarak alone had 70 billion tucked away. Imagine what the rest of his regime has hidden throughout the complex web of interconnected global banks. Could he have paid for peace too? The Bull Run, for the S&P that began in Jan of 09 is over for now. It will take real clarity and an understanding of the future impact on countries yet affected, before the market can resume its unfettered run. Global corporations can no longer asses the value of the deals they cut with dictators, tyrants and princes. Eventually the Libyan crisis will end. Many will die. Questions of how a new Libya and Egypt fit into the geopolitical landscape will pail by comparison to the debates over the future of Iran and China. Worse will be the affect on the world political scene, of the M.A.S.S., the Minimizing of America’s Superpower Status. The silence from the U.S. administration can no longer be tolerated. Israel stands more alone today in the Middle East, than perhaps at any other time in its history. If the West does not take an active role in the geopolitical changes, there is a chance that all the gains we have made in the war on terror could be lost.

While we have just finished corporate earrings’ season and economic numbers while not powerful indicators have shown

Disguised for Escape

a steady recovery. It is the kind of recovery that can be thrown rapidly off course by sky rocketing oil prices. I have been raising a red flag on inflation for some time. The event overseas will accelerate this process. We stand on the verge of government shutdowns and municipality insolvencies. Pouring more leveraged money into this market is foolhardy. There is only one logical trade for Tuesday. Take risk off the table, and short the market if you have free hands. I am reasonably short. While I am looking for a pull back, I will use any bounce in the market as an opportunity to further short the market. I believe we are at a significantly overbought level, ignorant of the realities that have been swirling around us.



“Don’t tase me bro!”, or “Le tase le akh!”


This morning Taser International (TASR) put out a press release announcing the following:

Significant follow-on orders of TASER® X26™ and ADVANCED TASER® M26™ electronic control devices (ECDs) and related accessories from two international customers.  The first order received provided 530 TASER X26 ECDs with 2850 TASER® cartridges and 530 TASER® Cam™ units. The second order received provided 2080 ADVANCED TASER® M26™ ECDs with 35,110 TASER® cartridges. Further customer information is not being released at this time. It is anticipated that these orders will ship in the First Quarter of 2011.

Given the tumult in the Middle East I can’t help but think that these orders were made by someone sitting in the back office of some Arab country’s ministry of defense.  That guy’s boss probably had the chief of police in his office saying something like “these nightsticks and tear gas aren’t enough – we need Tasers!”

A principal faction in the anti-totalitarian rallies in Tunisia, Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries over the past weeks and months has been comprised of college students.  These students are well-educated and willing to work, but have not been provided the opportunity to do so.  This reminds me of another college student who questioned leadership- Andrew Meyer, the University of Florida student who was “tased” by security guards at a town hall meeting hosted by John Kerry in September of 2007.  In the days to follow video of Meyer screaming “Don’t tase me bro!” went viral on YouTube.  His shrieks and squeals haunt me to this day and serve as a constant deterrent for students who consider streaking through the quad and into the gymnasium.  I can only imagine that there are screams of “Le tase le akh!” (the Arabic translation for Don’t tase me bro!) being heard throughout the Middle East these days.  TASR stock is up close to 5% on the day right now, but still 44% off 52-week highs, and prior to this morning’s news was only 14% off of 52-week lows.




Barron’s Summary - Sat Feb 12, 2011


  • The World’s Most Respected Companies – new Barron’s survey – Apple is #1, followed by AMZN and Berkshire. 
  • Pharma – companies like ABT, PFE and MDT should start shedding non-core businesses – the stocks could jump 30% or more if the companies broke themselves up.  PFE is already moving ahead w/a plan to restructure.  ABT could have the most upside if it decided to break apart.
  • InterContinental (IHG) – positive comments; the Holiday Inn revamp is almost done while the overall lodging industry is seeing rising profits and revs.  The stock may have near-term downside if an upcoming earnings report is anything but stellar.
  • Egypt – some stocks there could rally as a result of the Mubarak resignation – pos. on the broader Egyptian market as well as Orascom Construction Industries, Orascom Telecom, and Maridive & Oil Services.  Also pos. on ElSwedy Electric and Misr Duty Free.
  • Crude – a leading analyst, Charles Maxwell of Weeden, thinks crude will hit $300 by ’20.  Says nat gas prices have hit a bottom.  Bullish on oil sands companies SU and CVE.
  • Pamela Rosenau – the CIO of Rosenau/Paul – positive comments on ECT, AWK, EPB, and ARG.
  • MMI – positive review of the new MMI Atrix (although not a big fan of the phone’s laptop dock).  Says this is the best Android device on the market.
  • CSCO, NOK – both stocks are prob. dead money.
  • CSCO – downside limited and a rally into the mid $20s is plausible although it will require a surprise-free Q and a realization of a dividend.  
  • QCOM – repeats pos comments on the stock.
  • HPQ – next critical date for the stock will be Mar 14, when new CEO Leo Apotheker meets w/Wall St.
  • AMZN – negative comments; the stock is expensive and margins are shrinking as it moves into lower-margin categories.
  • AZO – neg. comments – similar story to AMZN…stock has run a lot and valuation rich.  Says demand was strong during the recession for car parts but this will slow as the economy recovers.
  • SGI – mentioned in Barron’s – no real opinion – notes that the co had blow-out earnings and the stock has rallied a lot.
  • KLAC – positive comments; the stock is cheap w/strong rev + earnings growth.
  • IP – positive comments; the stock is cheap; operations + cash flow generation are improving; the co could hike its dividend another 33% as well as buyback 10% of its shares.
  • ANR – positive comments; the MEE deal is a good one and fundamentals in met coal are strong; the stock could easily top $60 in 12 months.
  • NYX – pos. comments; the deal will prob. wind up going through and shouldn’t face any fatal anti-trust opposition; the NYX shrs now are pricing in most of the transaction’s upside although there is still some left.
  • Exchange M&A – the article speculates that CME could look to buy NDAQ; the article also postulates that NDAQ may look to buy CBOE.
  • DVN – positive comments – production and earnings growth will both be strong while valuation is cheap.  The co’s balance sheet is strong.  Stock could top $100.
  • Gold is unlikely to continue rallying at the pace seen in ’10.
  • QE2 – the program will prob. stay in place despite some skepticism from certain Fed officials.


Wednesday Market Expectations - 10 reasons the maket is at a near term top.


IBM? - "You think I should tuck it away in the IRA

I cannot believe I have turned so bearish, but as I continue to watch the over-the-top activity of the last week, I am left with limited alternative. I cannot say this enough, I am looking for a solid 18% S&P performance for the year. I can even buy into a 20+% performance under the right circumstances. But as I always say, “Do the math”. We cannot sustain this pace. It is illogical. We would be tracking for an up 55% year.  If you believe that, I have some land along alligator alley for sale. Yesterday was the most blatant example of “Air trading” or trading on greed and fear. There is nothing wrong with a day or two of greed and fear, but weeks worth of it do significant damage to the sustainability of market levels. Fundamentals and technicals are seemingly ignored in this kind of market. I was taught along time ago to sniff out the exogenous risks that tend to reveal themselves at market tops. They are as follows;

  1. Egypt – I would love to see Mubarak go quietly, but he won’t. Have you not been reading the ongoing abuse of basic human rights? Have you not seen the crowds growing? When they do prevail, what do you think they will do to a regime that has stolen nearly 100billion dollars from its people? 70billion of it going directly into Mubaraks pocket. He makes Madoff seem like a piker. Madoff got life. Mubarak will retire to a villa in Saudi Arabia. Do you not see the insanity of this?
  2. Middle east downgrades by the ratings agencies. As continued pressure mounts to reform multiple governments, and protests spread, the transition process will not go smoothly. There is too much at stake for the wealthy demagogues. They will not go quietly.
  3. Terrorism – the confusion of the moment will provide platforms for terrorist organizations to legitimize themselves.
  4. Iran – Their subdued activity should not be taken lightly. They are waiting the moment to interfere, perhaps even provoke Israel and America with renewed nuclear debates.
  5. North and South Korean talks ended as quickly as they began.
  6. China raising rates – Inflation fears are no longer fears, they are realities. Grain prices are soaring, Oil is creeping up to 100, and silver has become the new gold.
  7. Insider Trading – It won’t go away from Raj to Steve. Investors are losing confidence in their hedge fund oligarchs, perhaps they should be. The oligarchs have grown fat with wealth and irresponsible with management.
  8. Obama – Somebody tell me what he stands for, who he represents, what his agenda is. He is killing our global credibility. I have referred to this as M.A.S.S. – the Minimizing of America’s Super power Status.
  9. The Republicans – refer to my Obama comments.
  10. 10.   The bottom line is that we are in an improving economy, but we are not creating jobs at a rate that will sustain the recovery long term, Over 1/3 of home owners are probably underwater (more debt then equity) Consumers may be spending, but they are going back to the old habits of racking up debt. Why not? We have been trained to believe over the last couple of years that if your debt gets too high, you can just walk away from it. Government spending is out of control. And finally I know we are at a top, because my Aunt Beverly wants to know if I think she should buy IBM.


So Who Is Actually Bullish?


Ok, so we know why we should be bearish on the market, but what is the case for the bulls?  Here are a few reason why one could be bullish right now:

- Not much technical resistance ahead
- The VIX moved lower last week, even in the face of the turmoil in Egypt (dropped 20.5% following a 30% spike)
- Oversold indicators on the S&P have started moving lower
- Growth sectors Energy, Industrials, and Tech have pulled back in recent weeks, alleviating some selling pressure
- Little catalyst this week to get in the way of the rally as the economic calendar is light
- Reassurance from the Fed may induce further investor buying (note that Bernanke’s speech regarding the prospects of the economy was moderately more optimistic)