I could not hold my full position, I was able to hold enough such that the trading group was up 68,000 for the first 4 days of the month and I contributed my share. Though we had the right call for Friday, the short squeeze on Thursday jeopardized the month. As I have said before, you cannot do today that which would risk your entire business tomorrow. I had a speaking engagement on Friday and missed all the fun. I would have had quite a nice day, as my style is to have sold all day into the weakness and algorithmically covered through out the last hour and a half, 2:30 – 4. But such is the life of a trader. I look forward to Monday, to buy the dips and to find further opportunities to short the rallies, cover and take limited overnight risk. This is the trade I will continue to look for, irrespective of the fact that the general trend in the market is up, for as long as the fed continues to fool the marketplace. Over time I will be paid off and will eventually experience a mini flash crash day that will put many months to shame in one single day. It may take several weeks, but we are heading for a tipping point in the market place, in which one more test will be needed to believe that we are truly in a sustainable bull market and that repercussions of the financial crisis if not behind us, have at least all been identified.
I believe the shock to the system will be Bahrain. We are so focused on Libya, that the market and the media are overlooking the greatest concern. On Friday nearly 100,000 protestors demonstrated in Bahrain. But unlike Egypt and Libya, the US has actually openly supported the monarchy and what is an ambiguous offer from the monarchy to negotiate with protestors. This will create one of the first great disappointments for the US with respect to their involvement in the middles east revolution. The protesters will not forget that the US sided with the monarchy, or more appropriately, Big Oil told the US government to back the monarchy. These people will eventually prevail. It may take a long time, but it is inevitable. Our fleet will no longer be welcome there, and our relationship with Saudi Arabia will be jeopardized by the a Shiite led neighbor next door to the Saudi kingdom. How will Iran view a Shiite victory in Bahrain? This will only serve to fuel the insanity of Ahmadinejad. We also seem to be ignoring the Muslim brotherhood, now regaining their position of strength in Egypt and fanning flames in Jordan, assisting anti monarchy protest. The New York Times.com reports, “Opposition leaders in Bahrain said Sunday that they would not be mollified by offers of money and jobs, raising the prospect of a protracted standoff between protesters and the embattled government of this strategically important island nation.” If it doesn’t work there, it won’t work in Saudi Arabia. The Arab Monarchies are insane, “King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa, the leader of a royal family that has ruled Bahrain for two centuries, in February offered 1,000 dinars, or about $2,600, for each family soon. The government of Kuwait in January announced that each citizen would receive the equivalent of $3,500. And last week, the sultan of Oman decreed that anyone without a job would be eligible for a stipend of $375 per month.” Perhaps they are confusing American styled stimulus packages with bribery. The King isn’t trying to stimulate consumer spending, he is trying to stop a revolution, and bribery just wont do the trick.
I will start the week off buying dips looking to cover shorts and take long positions in names sitting on support. This will be a short-lived strategy, as I will be selling into any rally I see and ultimately build into a significantly net short position by Wednesday afternoon. I will spend Thursday and Friday shorting the market as I expect a correction to start later in the week that will hold for the remainder of the months. I expect March to be the first negative performance month of the year.
tune in for our live broadcast at hedgefundlive.com, tune in to my channel and see if I follow through.
Recent Comments