Wednesday Market Expectations - It Has Begun

HedgeFundLive.com -

I am reposting my blog from yesterday as i believe “It has begun” , China is slowing down, Spain is downgraded and i believe we may see a print above 400,ooo on the jobless claims. Not good. strap in for another crazy day.

I have the biggest overnight short position I have had in nearly a month. I am very bearish. Odd, as I really was a perma bull. But I have always been the guy that saw things ahead of time. I have seen what is coming over the next couple of weeks for the last couple of months. We are on the verge. Take your money off the table; the risk reward is significantly in the hands of the bears.

The NASDAQ was not strong on Tuesday. It was weak. Did you not see the selling into every rally? Did you not see AAPL hit a wall? Did you not see NFLX struggle and AMZN sell into every rally?

Oil will rally overnight. It should. The Middle East is a mess. How naive can we be to believe that the Libyan civil war will be resolved in the near term? Are you deaf? Did you not hear that Saudi Arabia is outlawing peaceful protests? The day of rage is upon us. Oil will be trading at 110 next week.

The market is stuck in a fever pitch, soon to be broken by the realities that are staring us in the face. My aunt Bernice wants to know if I think Apple is cheap. Should she buy NFLX? Is JDSU going back to $300 a share? We have reached that insane moment that only occurs when the market nearly doubles inside of two years. We are in a frenzy. When you wake up from a euphoric dream, and reality sets in, depression is soon to follow. As the saying goes, “Plan A never works, Plan B almost never works. No one ever has a Plan C.” We are there and there is no plan C.

Anarchy is upon us. Greed and a blind eye have brought us here. We need to correct, to find ourselves back on the path. The New York Times front-page lead article “Rising Oil Prices Pose New Threat To U.S. Economy”-ignored. Page A14 “Prime Minister Urges Iraqis to Call Off Nationwide Protests”. Yes, we are in danger of reversing  years of effort as we begin preparations to pull out of Iraq in December. Newtown, CT, my home away from home is struggling with their local budget. They are lucky to be struggling, high profile municipalities are not struggling, they are doomed.

Win, lose, or draw, I have bet a significant amount on the outcome of Wednesday’s market. This is referred to as living on the edge. It is where I belong. It is where I want to be. One decision, to be able to judge yourself in a moment, comprehend self worth, is like no other high. It is reality. It is destiny. I no longer have the patience to review the reasons why I am bearish. I would rather discuss the psychology that allows one to make a bet. Not just a small bet. But a bet that can change the game. I understand the risk. The firm is up $52,000 on the month. Tomorrow we are either down $50,000 or up $200,000. That is the real life of a “Risk Taker”. It is not your normal life. It is abnormal. But it is a high like no other. It is a razor blade edge I walk. A reward far beyond every day expectations. The time for long winded blogs explaining my position are at an end. It is time to put up or shut up, and so I have. No more discussions about domestic issues. No more pontificating on geopolitical implications. I will write no more blogs till I have either won the battle or been forced to retreat. It has begun.

Tune In for my live broadcast at HedgeFundLive.com Mon - Fri 8am - 5pm, lets see how it all ends.